The NCAA Tournament awarded its first at-large bid last week.

Joel Branstrom, a former Kansas walk-on who now coaches and teaches biology, hit a mid-court shot blindfolded, satisfying his end of a dare. Students at Olathe (Kan.) Northwest High couldn't deliver the Final Four tickets they promised, but the NCAA came through with a travel package for the entire family.

Branstrom will reach an Indianapolis Final Four 13 years behind schedule. He played -- sparingly -- for Roy Williams' top-ranked Jayhawks in 1997, when Arizona pulled off a regional upset and won the title.

Williams, who coached Kansas at Indy's 1991 Final Four, stands a better chance of participating in the simultaneous coaching convention than the games. North Carolina's defending champions teeter on the bubble, perilously close to missing the 65-team field.

That's this year. In some year coming soon, teams such as the Tar Heels (13-7, 2-3 ACC) might emit the aroma of virtual locks.

In some year coming soon, the bubble could very well grow and turn to cement foam capable of supporting nearly every ACC team. Tournament expansion, an abstract subject in recent winters, might become tangible overnight.

The NCAA basketball committee has been exploring possibilities with TV networks, coaches and administrators. That's common practice, but sources say that the talks now resemble informal negotiations capable of producing major changes.

Ron Wellman, the Wake Forest athletics director and a new committee member, doesn't detect an expansion trend yet. "There's interest in it," he said. "I wouldn't say there's movement in that way. We do want to make the best possible decision."

Expansion proponents lean toward a 96-team field that would add another week and two more rounds, with the top 32 teams receiving first-round byes. The formula works for coaches pushing expansion as a pressure-relieving solution to workplace stress -- especially those from power conferences, the welfare-for-millionaires crowd.

After George Mason rocked the roundball colonies by rolling into the 2006 Final Four, Syracuse's Jim Boeheim and other bubble victims latched onto the parity argument as a way to guarantee their annual spots. The committee listened and investigated, then ditched the idea -- reflecting the position of NCAA president Myles Brand. He has since died, and hasn't been replaced.

Expansion talk is back for business reasons. In 1999, the NCAA signed an exclusive $6 billion, 11-year deal with CBS scheduled to run through 2013, doubling the NCAA's basketball take to $545 million a year.

The recession hit advertisers and, consequently, the networks. CBS, which derives much of its corporate persona from March Madness, can rationalize riding an overpriced vehicle through economic downturns.

But there's another elephant in the room. The NCAA has the right -- until July 31 -- to opt out of the contract's remaining years, which would require approval from the basketball committee and NCAA directors.

Wellman said that he remains undecided. "At first, I was leaning to 96 teams, and then I found myself feeling that 65 is fine," he said. "I haven't established a position, nor has our conference established a position."

Fox, which lost the BCS football contract for 2011-14 to ESPN, could make a push. ABC/ESPN has the capability of broadcasting the tournament on cable and network stations. CBS could retain the late stages.

In a soft ad market, higher revenues probably hinge on expansion. The formula: A 96-team field means more games, more ads, more money.

The product wouldn't improve by hitching the NIT field to the money engine. The postseason NIT, now owned by the NCAA, most likely would disappear.

In middling and piddling leagues, those sad-eyed regular-season winners who blow their bids in conference tournaments might still make the show. It's almost certain that every mediocre on-the-bubble bunch from a power conference would get in, possibly down to 10th place in the ACC.

Some leagues would kill their tournaments. ESPN and regional TV networks might urge high-profile leagues to dump low-level nonconference opponents.

To make expansion palatable, some folks advocate handing out automatic bids to regular-season champs -- a carrot worthy of mid-major celebration. But regular-season champs capable of winning the NCAA already get in 99 percent of the time. For those leagues, the regular season might wind up meaning next to nothing.

With so many NCAA Tournament destinations assured, the long winter's journey could evolve into a March mile.

lrawlings@wsjournal.com