NFL approaching labor crisis

Rich, powerful and more popular than ever, the NFL gets closer to a doomsday scenario every day.

Without a deal in the next five weeks to preserve the labor peace that has lasted since a bad month in 1987, the NFL will have no salary cap next season. That means richer teams such as the Washington Redskins and New England Patriots will be able to outspend teams such as the Jacksonville Jaguars and Buffalo Bills for free agents and might force the Jaguars and Bills try to pinch pennies to stay in business.

And if no deal is reached for 2010, what could follow is no NFL at all in 2011.

"It looks very bleak to get a (deal) done before March of this year or the beginning of the new NFL season," said center Kevin Mawae of the Tennessee Titans, the president of the players' union. "Until we come to some terms of what's really important and what are the big issues … it's going to be tough to get something done.

"The players are more united than ever before, and we're preparing for a lockout."

The main issue, as always, is money -- despite soaring TV ratings, an average franchise value of $1 billion and a storybook Super Bowl featuring the hard-luck New Orleans Saints and Peyton Manning's Indianapolis Colts.

The NFL owners in 2008 opted out of their contract -- called the collective-bargaining agreement, or CBA -- and have asked for givebacks from players, including a reduction in salaries of nearly 20 percent.

That works out to about $800 million -- overall NFL revenues are estimated at $6.5 billion. Owners say the agreement that will expire next year is far too favorable for the players, who get about 60 percent of the revenues actually used to determine the salary cap.

"What we're trying to accomplish here is to have an economic system ... that will allow us to look back 15 years from now and say that we, meaning the clubs and the players, were creative and thoughtful and laid the groundwork for the game to continue to grow," said Jeff Pash, the NFL's executive VP and chief counsel.

"If we have the right type of structure, it will lead to better salaries and benefits for current and retired players, and a better and healthier game for fans."

The alternative? Work stoppages similar to those in 1982 and 1987, when the union went on strike. Under labor law, the union has the right to strike, and management has the right to lock out.

"Our focus is on getting a deal and we will have a deal," Pash says. "The only question is when."

For most of those years since the sides reached the contract that brought the current free-agency and salary-cap systems, mention of an uncapped season was heresy.

"I think the fans will see a different system with no limit on the high end or the low end, and on what teams can spend," said Rich McKay, the president of the Atlanta Falcons. "Each team will have to decide how they will operate."

Does that mean the NFL salary structure will resemble baseball's rich get richer-poor get poorer model -- at least for one year?

No, said Marc Ganis, the president of Chicago-based consulting company Sports Corp. Ltd.

"It won't happen, at least now, because of the competitive-balance rules that are in effect during the uncapped year," Ganis says.

"You will not see a baseball type of hoarding of the all-stars occur in the NFL, certainly not this coming season."

Agent Tom Condon, who counts Manning and Saints quarterback Drew Brees among his clients, agrees that that, overall, less money will be available.

"Over the past three years, 90 percent or so of the NFL teams have not, on average, spent up to the salary cap," Condon said. "Now you have no floor, so you have teams that were required to spend to the floor who don't have to participate or can participate on a lower level. I think you may see teams on selected players spend a lot of money and have a lot less participation overall than usual."

That might eliminate bidding wars when free agency starts March 5, or leave only a few teams participating.

That's good news for low-income teams.

With no minimum team salary, small-market franchises will no longer be forced to spend close to what every else does. Instead, they will spend what they can afford.

Ever since DeMaurice Smith was elected executive director of the NFL Players Association in March, players have been warned to prepare for a moment when the league stopped playing. But time rapidly is running out, and it's a new world the NFL appears to be entering. Condon warns that what comes after 2010 is more critical for the sport than what comes this year.

"An uncapped season is not as important as what happens after that," he says. "A lockout or decertification by the union? Nobody really knows."

NFL uncapped

Some effects of a 2010 season with no salary cap:

❑ Players would need six years in the league, rather than four, before becoming unrestricted free agents. There are plenty of stars among the 212 players who would be impacted. They will become restricted free agents, meaning their current teams will be able to match offers or be compensated for losing them. A player with three, four or five years whose contract is up would become a restricted free agent.

❑ There would be no salary floor or salary ceiling. In 2009, the cap was $128 million, the floor was $111 million.

❑ Two players on each team, instead of one, would have transition tags. A transition player must be offered at least the average of the top 10 salaries for his position during the previous season, or 120 percent of his previous year's salary, whichever is more.

❑ The eight teams that made the divisional round this year (New Orleans, Minnesota, Dallas, Arizona, Indianapolis, San Diego, Baltimore and the New York Jets) will have limits on signing unrestricted free agents. Called the Final Eight Plan, the number of players those teams lose to free agency will determine how many they can sign from other teams. The Colts, Jets, Vikings and Saints would have other obstructions.

❑ A supplemental revenue-sharing plan will be scrapped by the league, which said about $100 million is involved; the union says it's closer to $200 million. That program involves the top 15 teams by revenue putting funds into a pool from which lower-income teams can draw. Nine franchises qualified to receive money last year; the NFL didn't identify them.

❑ All teams would be relieved of their obligations to pay player-benefit programs, including 401Ks, player annuity, severance pay and tuition assistance. That would be a cost reduction of more than $7 million per team.

the associated press