No Cinderellas: Trying to find a team that comes out of nowhere to make a dent in the NCAA Tournament will be hard to find

Everyone talks about Cinderella in March. But, really, when was the last time she bothered to fill out a pool sheet?

Maybe that's why the NCAA Tournament needs some new juice. Cinderella is more than a tired cliché. She's just tired. And old.

The fairy tale's theme dates to B.C., before conference expansion. The Charles Perrault version that introduced the glass slippers was written in 1697. Walt Disney's animated film premiered in 1950, when 3-year-old Toddler K was nailed with a timeout technical and banished to his playpen, where he defiantly invented the flop.

Since then, NCAA upsets of biblical proportions prompted folks to call N.C. State (1983) and Villanova (1985) basketball Cinderellas. They should have been Davids. But perhaps that's an extremely fine point for someone to make in Winston-Salem, where hyphens are called dashes and peripheral construction sites are called downtown ballparks.

George Mason revived the genre in 2006, crashing the Final Four. Last year, the sons of David considered the Cinderella label disrespectful but were polite enough to go along. Davidson went all the way to the last shot in the regional final against eventual champ Kansas.

When the NCAA selection committee announced the bids Sunday, fans started searching the draw for this year's Davidson. That's hard work.

Gonzaga, which lost to Davidson in the 2008 first round, begins the run with a higher ranking (10) and a higher seed (No. 4 in the South, two games away from meeting North Carolina). The Zags don't have a Stephen Curry. Who does? They have a funky name and live on the other coast, but they have qualified for the past 11 tournaments, a longer streak than any ACC team except Duke (14).

Xavier, the No. 4 seed in the East, doesn't qualify as a silent giant-slayer after reaching two regional finals in the previous five tournaments. Butler, Carolina's potential second-round opponent, is a No. 9 seed with an extensive NCAA resume.

They are two of only four teams with at-large invitations from outside the six power conferences. The others: Dayton and Brigham Young.

Left out of tourney

The selections always trigger complaints about the last few picks. Distraught analysts assailed 19-13 Arizona, which finished fifth in the so-so Pac-10, ranked 62nd on the RPI computer list and won just two road games. On the other hand, Arizona -- John McCain's team -- beat President Obama's coaching brother-in-law at Oregon State and won six games against teams ranked among the computer's top 50.

One alluring alternative, Saint Mary's of California (26-6), played without dynamic guard Patty Mills down the regular-season stretch yet still won 13 road games and ranked 48th in the RPI. Mills returned -- a move usually good for committee bonus points -- but the Gaels didn't survive, probably because they blew a shot at Gonzaga in the West Coast final by a mere 25 points.

Alas, there aren't any discernible candidates for a long run from left field. Fans addicted to shockers might have to settle for one-day wonders. In the first round, that might mean Western Kentucky over Illinois, Virginia Commonwealth over UCLA, Wisconsin over Florida State, Minnesota over Texas, Michigan over Clemson, Southern Cal over Boston College, Maryland over Cal or Arizona over Utah. And those don't sound like wild upsets.

The best bet from the edge of the outfield grass: Missouri, a pressing, breaking team that sometimes unhinges orthodox opponents. The Tigers, seeded No. 3 in the West after winning the Big 12 Tournament, should beat the Marquette-Utah State survivor and face Memphis, a streaky offensive team, in the regional semifinals.

WFU's chances

Wake Forest dropped from certified Final Four contender to certifiable enigma at the ACC Tournament, shooting 29.7 percent and losing to Maryland. The two-left-feet prelude to the dance scared off most analysts, but the Deacons retain the same chemistry as the team that tied Duke for second place: solid body, fluid psyche.

On most days, they're far better than a No. 4 seed. They're the strongest Final Four contender below the No. 2s, capable of beating anyone. The Deacons' seed probably reflects a thin nonconference schedule more than a sloppy ACC exit.

The curious RPI computer, which apparently no longer serves as committee gospel, ranks Wake Forest's outside schedule 287th among the 343 Division I teams. That's lower than even Winston-Salem State. The reason: Other than Brigham Young and Baylor, the Deacons didn't play any nonconference teams ranked among the top 84 in RPI. They dragged down the math by playing N.C. Central (337), WSSU (327), Bucknell (295), UNC Wilmington (277) and East Carolina (223).

Scheduling doesn't matter now. Events determine the schedule. The Deacons fared exceptionally well for a No. 4 seed, with a Midwest opener against Cleveland State (25-10) and second-rounder against the Utah-Arizona winner.

Two victories should arrange an epic semifinals showdown against No. 1 Louisville, which sometimes can't shoot straight.

The Deacons' elevated profile hardly fits the Cinderella template, and the mascot's clunky feet would never fit into narrow glass shoes. Still, Wake Forest rates as the finest candidate that just towed a chariot out of the ditch.

■ Lenox Rawlings can be reached at lrawlings@wsjournal.com.