Bailout: For Dash, math looks a little fuzzy

Ballpark bailouts and other notes:

Billy Prim, the developer with the Babe Ruth appetite for public money, insists that he will pay everything back one day. No problem.

According to his calculations, the Winston-Salem Dash can make the 25-year formula work by drawing 300,000 customers each season. For a 70-game schedule, that's 4,286 fans a night. No problem.

But maybe everything isn't so simple. By Prim's original calculations, the Peters Creek project was going to cost $22.6 million -- at least until he concluded that it would cost $40.7 million. Prim worked out a deal with supportive Mayor Allen Joines and other city officials for $15.7 million more, which the City Council approved Wednesday night.

On deck: the work of finishing construction and putting 300,000 people in the seats summer after summer.

Last season, according to minor-league specialists at The Biz of Baseball, Winston-Salem drew 169,963 fans to 66 home games, an average of 2,575. It might sound like a short ride from 2,575 to 4,286 -- at least a shorter ride than from the new ballpark to Winston-Salem's actual downtown -- but experiences elsewhere suggest a tougher road, especially after the stadium's novelty wears off.

Among the 82 teams in all Class A minor leagues last season, only 16 averaged at least 4,286 fans. In the Carolina League, an advanced A league, only two Winston-Salem rivals reached that figure. The Wilmington, Del., Blue Rocks, who scheduled a Joe Biden bobble-head night this summer, drew about 312,000 fans and averaged 4,527. Frederick, Md., drew 295,656 fans and averaged 4,480.

Four Class A teams in short-season leagues (Lowell, Mass.; Brooklyn, N.Y.; Staten Island, N.Y.; Spokane, Wash.) averaged 4,973 to 7,367.

Dash promoters imply that Winston-Salem should come close to matching Greensboro, which belongs to a lower Class A league, the South Atlantic. In minor-league terms, though, Greensboro is a shining success story, with average sales of 6,297 per game in 2008. Only two teams from all the Class A leagues drew more customers than Greensboro's 440,000: Dayton (586,000) and Kane County, Ill. (472,000). Brooklyn and Lakewood, N.J., also had higher averages.

Greensboro surpassed Charlotte, a Class AAA team from the International League that averaged 4,526 on a total gate of about 312,000. The Durham Bulls, who play in the same league, drew about 504,000 and averaged 6,995. Last season, Winston-Salem was on par with Asheville, a member of Greensboro's league that attracted 176,000 customers and averaged 2,625.

There's a lot more to reaching the right attendance number than taking public money and building gates that will swing open one day.

Bullpen meltdown

Sometimes, scouting reports fall apart. Most scouts figured that North Carolina had enough pitching to win the College World Series on the fourth straight try, but they questioned the lineup's punch beyond Dustin Ackley and Kyle Seager.

"This year has been a little bit extra special, with a lot of the criticism we got because they didn't think we were offensive enough to make it back, possibly," Seager said.

After scoring just once in the regulation nine innings of the opener, the hitters produced enough runs, but the bullpen melted in both losses to Arizona State. Carolina starters held the Sun Devils to four runs (all earned) and nine hits in 131/3 innings. The relievers gave up 13 runs (12 earned) and 11 hits in 42/3 innings.

In the elimination game, catcher Mark Fleury blocked more bouncers than a Stanley Cup goalie. Four got past him, three of them wild pitches, and the hurlers hit four batters. A telling stat: Carolina threw 199 pitches in eight innings, 44 more than ASU threw in nine.

Mock drafts

The NBA can't stage a draft until all the willing foreigners and U.S. underclassmen jump into the pool. They're in now, and while they wait for June 25, assorted analysts are rearranging their mock drafts.

After studying perhaps a dozen of these charts, a few tendencies stand out. Blake Griffin is No. 1, period. Davidson's Stephen Curry could go eighth to the Knicks, although his stock seems to be falling slightly in some corners. A stunning number of informed guessers sense that Charlotte will pick Duke's Gerald Henderson at No. 12.

North Carolina's Tyler Hansbrough impressed so many coaches and general managers during workouts that his stock has risen, in two cases as high as No. 11. His more prevalent range: 15 to 21. Carolina's Ty Lawson usually falls between 18th and 22nd. Teammate Wayne Ellington hangs around until late in most first rounds.

Wake Forest's James Johnson tends to fit between 11th and 18th, with a tilt toward Indiana at No. 13. The Deacons' Jeff Teague ranges mostly from 13th to 21st (which would pair him with alumnus Chris Paul of New Orleans). Florida State's Toney Douglas and Carolina's Danny Green have second-round profiles. Gani Lawal was a first-rounder in many mock drafts before he returned to Georgia Tech.

Bailout at the Open

Talk about bailouts. The whining New York media and whining New York golf fans wrung their hands dry while moaning about the early rainout of the U.S. Open's Thursday round. Because some competitors had played longer than three hours, the U.S. Golf Association at first decided against issuing refunds or letting holders of Thursday daily tickets join the Friday gallery, citing the logical limits of time, space and security. After the uproar rattled enough bow ties, the USGA opted to honor Thursday tickets on Monday if the tournament lasts that long.

Andrew Cuomo, New York's attorney general and possibly its next governor, jumped into the fray and squeezed a 50 percent Thursday refund out of the USGA should the Open end on Sunday, as scheduled. The line presumably forms near the GM hospitality tent.

■ Lenox Rawlings can be reached at lrawlings@wsjournal.com.