Year after year, N.C. State's frustrated basketball fans keep waiting for next year.
Tonight, they'll get a rare December preview of the immediate future, an ACC opener at Wake Forest.
Coming on the heels of semester exams, the taste is also a test. The loaded central question: Is the Wolfpack too flawed and too thin to avoid hibernation in the conference's damp basement?
That's where a preseason media poll and many independent forecasters expect State to finish. Wins at an early Florida tournament and at Marquette argue otherwise, and the 8-1 record suggests progress in Coach Sidney Lowe's fourth season, but the only acceptable answers depend on peer review.
No. 2 scorer Dennis Horner, a senior, knows the score. "It's our first ACC game," he said. "If we get a win, it's going to say something about our program and what we've done."
As words go, Horner's "if" looks larger than an elephant, at least based on Thursday night developments. Elon battled State right down to the final seconds before losing 79-76.
That's 3-8 Elon, which rattled into Raleigh shooting 37 percent overall after making 3 of 25 3-point attempts and scoring just 31 points at Samford.
Elon guards consistently took the ball wherever they wanted, driving down the lane and dishing to open dunkers or bombers. The Phoenix shooters suddenly resembled the Phoenix Suns. Senior Adam Constantine scored 26 points -- 10 more than his career high -- and won a matchup against the Wolfpack's best player, 6-8 Tracy Smith.
Forwards Horner (15 points a game, 59-percent shooting) and Smith (18.3 points, 9.4 rebounds) blamed the sleepwalking on overconfidence fueled by Wake Forest's 90-50 blowout of Elon four days earlier.
The misplaced arrogance galled Lowe, who hasn't reached a postseason tournament since winning two NIT games his rookie year. State's prevailing pattern was exemplified by 3-for-17 shooting in the early stages of a home loss to Northwestern. The Wolfpack, down 11, roasted Marquette with a 52-point blitz in the second half and overcame Elon's six-point halftime lead.
"How many times can you get a wakeup call?" Lowe said. "Pretty soon, you've got to wake yourselves up. We have to wake ourselves up and come ready to play. We haven't done anything to earn a right to not come ready to play and think we're going to blow anybody out. You've got to do something big. You've got to win a championship. You've got to win 30 or 40 in a row before you start thinking you're going to walk on the floor and just beat somebody."
Hardly anyone expects anything consistently big out of the Wolfpack this season for a simple reason: Lowe is going through a talent transition.
The top three producers last year -- Brandon Costner, Ben McCauley and Courtney Fells -- all departed. Trumpeted recruit Lorenzo Brown, a high-scoring guard from Georgia, didn't hit enough academic high notes and chose to spend his waiting winter at Hargrave Military Academy.
The five-man freshman class shows promise, especially starter Scott Wood (despite a shooting slump) and energetic reserve Josh Davis of Raleigh. The point guard of the future, Ryan Harrow, still plays for a Marietta, Ga., high school while Lowe relies on incumbent guards Javier Gonzalez, Julius Mays and Farnold Degand. C.J. Williams, a 6-6 sophomore, also starts.
"Everybody has bonded," Smith said. "Everybody's on the same page. Everybody wants to win. We're trying to get everything right and trying to turn this program around."
The turns might feel sharper and faster real soon. Next year starts right about now.
lrawlings@wsjournal.com
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