The odds, historically here at Lowe's Motor Speedway, favor Rick Hendrick's drivers -- 15 wins in 48 races, and 43 top-five finishes.
Last season, for the third time in four years, Hendrick drivers swept both Cup races, with Casey Mears pulling out the 600 and Jeff Gordon then taking the fall 500.
But this year, so far, the Hendrick camp has seemed almost lost at times. Jimmie Johnson's gas-mileage win at Phoenix is the only victory, and too many times these guys have simply not been all that competitive.
And Saturday night's All-Star race wasn't exactly a shining moment for these guys.
In fact the All-Star race was rather weird in several other aspects too: no cautions, and unusual handling characteristics for these winged cars.
The NASCAR stock car has been hotly criticized this season for handling problems, and it was again last weekend.
Add an extra 100 miles to the show and drivers are getting nervous.
"As a driver, you definitely notice it's another 100 miles," Dale Earnhardt Jr. said of the Coca-Cola 600 Sunday night. "You're riding along and all of a sudden a switch flips on, where you start to feel like you could lose focus or concentration.
"Physically and mentally, it's a tough race.
"Some races go better than others, sure. And there are times you get mentally exhausted. But I've never completely lost concentration.
"Still, it's a challenge, that's for sure.
"I don't think I know anyone who has a real lock on how to set your car up perfectly for starting in the day and finishing at night.
"The track obviously gets a lot faster (as it cools), and you know you have to anticipate a lot.
"The good thing is that it's longer and you have a better chance of hitting the nail on the head because you have a longer time to think about it, and more opportunity to work on the car.
"Patience is a key too."
But it's the end of May and it's going to be summer soon, and patience appears to be wearing thin in the Hendrick camp, and maybe in Richard Childress' Chevy camp too, where more power under the hood seems the order of the day.
Tony Eury Jr., Earnhardt's crew chief, said that the All-Star race surprised him: "I think we were all surprised at how much the handling of the cars changed over a 25-lap runs the other night.
"We're going to have to build some adjustability into the car. Saturday night, our car started out tight and then went bad loose."
So, with Hendrick teams still question marks, Toyota's Kyle Busch and Ford's Carl Edwards may be the ones to bank on for Thursday night's pole runs for the Sunday 600. And maybe Toyota's Denny Hamlin and Ford's Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth, if the All-Star race is any indication.
Meanwhile, Kurt Busch, who has been almost lost this season in the surge of success by kid brother, Kyle, said that this 600 may come down to survival of the fittest -- and he's not talking about the cars themselves, but the drivers.
"These new cars are a handful to drive anyhow," Kurt Busch says. "They are notorious for having the ‘loose in, tight in the center and loose off' handling characteristics.
"You can actually wear blisters on your hands through your driving gloves if you're out there hanging on for dear life, like we have so many times this season.
"With the race starting during daylight and running on into the cool of the night, the temperatures and conditions will be continuously changing. The goal will for teams will be to stay on top of making the proper adjustments to adapt to the changing track.
"The bottom line, though, is we've never faced this situation before. I can guarantee you this time around with these new cars, there will be many more ill-handling cars out there the final 100 miles than there are cars handling well.
"It's been a big challenge to race these things for 500 miles. Now throw in those extra 100 miles Sunday and it'll be a grind like we've never experienced.
"My game plan actually started several weeks back. I know what a challenge it is going to be; the extra laps Sunday will put tremendous importance on your stamina and upper-body strength. So for the last couple of months I've been working out at least three days a week with my trainer, putting extra focus on cardio time on the treadmill and the elliptical machine.
"I know how much strain it is to manhandle these cars, especially if I have to really get up on the wheel. My trainer has me spending time on my upper-body strength. We've been really hitting the machines hard, and using free weights to focus on bicep curls, lateral raises and overhead presses.
"I know I'm a pretty skinny little dude, but I honestly think I'm in the best physical shape ever. I know what a physical drain Sunday's race can be, and I want to be as prepared as possible. If we're fortunate to be up there and in the hunt after the first 500 miles, I certainly don't want to fall out of the seat when it's time to really be getting after it.
"I'll be watching what I eat and drink … and I'll have to go easy on the chicken wings. I've been talking with my trainer and reading a lot about foods that are good for providing additional energy and stamina: carbo-loading and hydration therapy."
■ Mike Mulhern can be reached at mmulhern@wsjournal.com.
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