Tar Heels haven't won next season's title just yet

Three North Carolina underclassmen decided that the NBA deep end was too deep for them and returned to the Roy Williams college of basketball knowledge last week.

About five minutes after the hyperventilating world learned the news, Carolina became the overwhelming favorite to win the 2009 national championship. Hands down. In a landslide. The widespread conclusion sparked spontaneous parties among the pale-blue gang and quiet desperation elsewhere.

If half the sporting pleasure flows from giddy expectations, the Tar Heels wearing uniforms and the Tar Heels bearing Rams Club receipts for monies donated will enjoy half a party. The first half. The other half, which involves edgy rivalries and NCAA Tournament games, probably won't feel like an eternal Fourth of July.

Despite the considerable talents of water-testers Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green, despite the perpetual production of senior Tyler Hansbrough, Carolina will not jog to any trophy presentation next April. Championships are earned, not awarded. From a historic perspective, the odds do not favor Carolina winning the title. The odds favor Carolina falling short.

The reasons begin at home. The core of the projected 2009 champions blew a 10-point lead over Georgetown with 6:03 left in the East final two seasons ago and blew a tire in the first half of the national semifinals against Kansas last season. Offensive paralysis ended the first stab. Defensive paralysis and brain cramps ended the second.

Memories of the Georgetown meltdown powered the internal engine last winter, and the cement-footed stumble in San Antonio should supply another dose of motivation. Those are the talking points, anyway, that Ellington and point guard Lawson mentioned.

"I look forward to playing next season and trying to win a national championship," Lawson said.

Lawson's fans and teammates probably look forward to him playing. He missed six full ACC games and part of another with a sprained ankle. After returning, Lawson drove hesitantly and rarely resembled the same dynamo, which disrupted Carolina's rhythm. He was mostly horrid in the Kansas checkout.

At full speed, Lawson attracts all sorts of attention. Twice last year, that meant speeding convictions for 15 miles over the limit. He now faces charges of driving with a revoked license and underage drinking, which probably will not affect his basketball eligibility unless Coach Williams reaches a harsh judgment.

The late Jim Valvano, dealing with media fallout from speedster Charles Shackleford's on-the-road escapades, arrived at a tenable compromise to reassure N.C. State fans and Wake County residents. Valvano's solution: He wouldn't let Shackleford drive the team bus.

Williams and his talented team should visit Motor City for Detroit's original Final Four, but several rough curves could jeopardize the plans. Williams, having experienced competitive potholes before, understands that there are no sure things.

In 1997, his Kansas team topped the AP rankings from Dec. 2 through the final poll, right after conference tournaments. The Jayhawks lost a regional semifinal to a No. 4 seed and the eventual champ, Arizona.

Duke looked like a sure thing before the 1999 title game. The Blue Devils held the No. 1 slot through February and March, winning all 16 ACC games by an average score of 91-69 and beating Carolina 96-73 in the tournament final. But Connecticut won the NCAA title 77-74.

Coach Mike Krzyzewski's phenomenal success in the ACC Tournament contributed to seven No. 1 rankings in the final AP poll. Duke won two NCAA titles from that slot (1992, 2001), and twice lost the final (1986, 1999). In 2000 and 2006, the ride ended at regional semis.

Williams was a Carolina assistant in 1984 when Michael Jordan and Sam Perkins led a powerhouse that stayed No. 1 despite losing to Duke in the ACC semis. The season ended in a regional semi against unranked Indiana. That's still considered one of the monumental upsets, just behind No. 16 N.C. State over Houston in the 1983 final and unranked Villanova over Georgetown in the 1985 final.

Williams was there when the No. 1 Tar Heels of 1986 faded to eighth in the last three polls, and he was there when the No. 1 Tar Heels lost a regional final to Syracuse in 1987.

The No. 1 Tar Heels fell to Boston College in the 1994 second round and to No. 7 Utah in the 1998 NCAA semis. Last season, Carolina (36-3) led the poll the first 11 weeks and the last three, replaced briefly by Memphis. Williams' championship team of 2005 beat No. 1 Illinois in the final.

Players come and players go. In the ACC, 70 percent of the starters will return, including all five at Carolina and Wake Forest (which adds a three-player recruiting class rated among the nation's best). Duke, Miami and Virginia Tech retain four starters. Clemson, steadily improving under Oliver Purnell, thrives on defense and thus might stay ahead of the fresh challengers. Florida State will bring in five new players.

Players leave and players stay. Carolina players stayed and emerged as the automatic summer pick over Pitt, UCLA, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Louisville, Memphis and Duke. That doesn't necessarily make things tougher for Krzyzewski, who gets everyone back except DeMarcus Nelson and transfer Taylor King, with substantial help arriving from the injured and recruiting lists.

"I'll be starting my 29th year in the ACC, and when someone says ‘tougher,' I always smile," Krzyzewski said. "I don't know. I've been in tough. We've had teams where someone probably smiled and said: ‘Boy, they're going to do it.' I just think you concentrate on your team.... North Carolina's kids, they're going to be really good no matter what. Those kids are great kids. They're friends with a number of our guys. I wasn't going into next year's season thinking it was going to be easy."

It never is.

■ Lenox Rawlings can be reached at lrawlings@wsjournal.com.