McCrory now finds self on uncertain turf

The shock of Gov. Bev Perdue's announcement Thursday that she will not seek reelection is still reverberating in the political world from Raleigh to Charlotte to Washington.

Pundits are busily speculating not only about who will replace Perdue as the Democratic candidate for governor, but what effect her decision will have on President Obama's chances in North Carolina and the efforts to defeat the marriage-discrimination amendment on the ballot in May.

Both are probably improved.

But when the shock wears off, there's another major political impact of Perdue's decision to consider. The biggest loser in the shakeup may be the presumptive Republican nominee for governor, former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory.

That's not because it was a foregone conclusion that McCrory would have defeated Perdue in their rematch in November. Perdue's sputtering approval numbers and polls showing McCrory with a double-digit lead clearly established him as the favorite, but both camps expected the race to tighten as Perdue and other Democrats began focusing directly on McCrory and the Obama machine cranked up its operations.

But McCrory's entire campaign just changed, whether he wants to admit it or not. He has spent almost every day since November 2008 running against Perdue specifically, constantly referring to her by name in speeches and media appearances.

No doubt his campaign strategists had already mapped out the plan to attack Perdue, most likely by blaming her for everything that has gone wrong in the state in the last three years — whether it is actually her fault or not — and for her proposal to raise taxes to fund education, though they usually leave out the part about where the revenue would go.

McCrory has also tried to make Perdue's leadership an issue, at least his distorted presentation of it, trying to exploit the anti-incumbency fever that always exists in times of economic anxiety.

Almost all of those tactics are gone now for McCrory. And instead of spending their time defending a beleaguered incumbent governor who had the misfortune of taking over in the worst economic crisis in 75 years, the Democrats are now likely to have a spirited primary that could energize the base just as the Obama campaign kicks into full gear in the summer.

McCrory now is not sure who he is running against in the fall and each of the potential candidates present different challenges.

There's former White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles, Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton, Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx, Rep. Bill Faison, former State Treasurer Richard Moore and several more.

Just the discussion of possible candidates may energize Democrats by reminding them that they have a deep bench, whether the people mentioned are interested or not; folks like Attorney General Roy Cooper, former House Speaker and current Sen. Dan Blue, Rep. Brad Miller, State Treasurer Janet Cowell, Sen. Josh Stein, Rep. Rick Glazier and others.

None of McCrory's opponents were running the state for the last four years and with the exception of Faison, none of the most likely candidates were even in the General Assembly.

In many ways, McCrory may now be the candidate who has to defend his ties to an unpopular legislature, with his lavish praise for House Speaker Thom Tillis and the Republican majority and its extremist agenda that is far outside the mainstream of North Carolina.

None of this should be interpreted as a slap at Gov. Perdue and attempts to define her political legacy are premature.

She deserves a lot of credit for steadying North Carolina during extremely difficult times and for standing up to the far-right leadership of the General Assembly in the last year, drawing a sharp contrast for the state.

She also has another year in office to work on economic development and to fight to restore some of the deep cuts to education, early childhood programs and human services made by the General Assembly. She can now concentrate on those issues and leave the fundraising and campaigning to someone else.

There's plenty of time in the next few weeks for pundits to weigh the advantages of potential candidates and the specific challenges they face, though it's hard to imagine that Erskine Bowles is not the person the Republicans are most worried will enter the race.

What is certain now is that McCrory's political world is upside down. The one thing he was sure of has changed.