Measuring the health of North Carolina's job market for 2011 comes down to which stick is being used.
The N.C. Commerce Department reported Tuesday the unemployment rate for December fell for the third consecutive month to 9.9 percent — down 0.1 percentage point. It is the first time the rate slipped below double digits since June.
However, December's decline moved the jobless rate to just above the 9.8 percent that North Carolina started 2011 with last January. For the year, there was a net gain of 19,600 nonfarm jobs, but the number of unemployed North Carolinians increased by 9,154.
And the gap between the N.C. and national jobless rate widened again, with the U.S. rate at 8.5 percent.
Based on that data, many economists say the state did little more than tread water last year.
"December's job market performance was a disappointing end to a disappointing year," said John Quinterno, a principal with Chapel Hill research firm South by North Strategies Ltd. "Despite the net gain of jobs, North Carolina has 295,300 fewer jobs than it did in December 2007."
Quinterno said he remains "alarmed" that the share of working-age North Carolinians with a job remains near the lowest level recorded since 1976. In December, 55.6 percent of working-age North Carolinians had jobs, down from 62.4 percent in December 2007.
"Four years after the onset of the great recession, little suggests that the job market has made — or is about to make — significant strides in putting sizable numbers of displaced Tarheels back to work," Quinterno said.
The department's Labor and Economic Analysis division reported that in December the number of North Carolinians in the workforce dropped 4,400, to 3.88 million.
In the professional and business services sector, the number of jobs dropped by 3,900, and in the trade, transportation and utilities sector, the number of jobs dropped by 1,800.
The jobless rate dropped 0.4 percentage points in November primarily because of early holiday hiring by retailers. Because of the seasonal nature of that hiring, economists cautioned the jobless rate probably will go back up in January.
"I think the recent drop in the unemployment rate overstates the extent of the improvement in North Carolina's economy," said Mark Vitner, a senior economist with Wells Fargo Securities. "We remain on a slow track to recovery, and hiring is modestly stronger than it was a year ago."
Vitner said he predicts the state will have a net gain of about 50,000 jobs during 2012. "Practically all the growth will come in the private sector," Vitner said.
There was a net gain of 1,500 government jobs during December.
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