An acclaimed economist and best-selling author offered a sweet and sour 2012 forecast to local business and elected officials Tuesday.
Todd Buchholz, whose latest book is "Rush: Why You Need and Love the Rat Race," spoke to an audience of 700 at the annual Winston-Salem Chamber of Commerce economic forecast. The meeting at the Embassy Suites Hotel was held in conjunction with the Winston-Salem Rotary Club.
The chamber also released its first economic publication. The 14-page report touted the community's progress and prowess during the economic downturn compared with the state's other major metro areas.
Buchholz mixed humor with economic data and anecdotes that dated back to the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the rise of China and India's manufacturing and technology might.
He said the U.S. and N.C. economies are being forced to adjust to "the most tumultuous economic and political times that any of us have ever witnessed."
"Old assumptions are being overturned. Most economic formulas have been shredded by new realities in an era of hyper-competition. We're living in the age of anxiety.
"We're all feeling the effect of these economic forces, and there's shaken confidence even as it makes the overall global economy stronger."
For example, he said the poverty level in most of the developing world — defined as living on $1 a day — has declined significantly in the past 20 years except in Africa.
Given his background as a former economic adviser to President George H.W. Bush, it was not surprising Buchholz offered a pro-business perspective on the economic tensions facing the country.
He said federal health-care reform is creating uncertainty for small businesses and restricting job growth. He said the Occupy movement is harming capitalism by comparing all business officials with the Gordon Gekko "greed is good" character of the "Wall Street" movie series.
"Capitalism has become this new original sin that stains our morality," he said. "This is a dangerous point of view."
He slammed lenders in the lead-up to the financial crisis for providing mortgages to consumers who couldn't afford a home in the best of economic times.
He expects the economy to do better in 2012 in part because consumers are tired of not spending after paying down debt the past two years.
As Buchholz made his pitch for more emphasis on science, technology, engineering and math, he said the country is "in a global race for IQ."
"Here is where I am worried about the long term because those that harness IQ will succeed in the 21st century," he said. "We're now the Jamaican Olympic bobsled team in math."
But in the heart of the global "maelstrom," Buchholz said there's also "opportunity for prosperity, innovation and still our chance to make a better life."
Among the highlights of the chamber's report:
- While manufacturing accounted for nearly 40 percent of the community's workforce in 1972, it now accounts for just 10 percent. Meanwhile, health care is the largest industry at nearly 19 percent of the workforce.
- Over the past two years, the community has gained its most new residents from Miami and Fort Lauderdale, while the most popular destinations of people moving from here are Los Angeles and Atlanta.
Gayle Anderson, chief executive and president of the chamber, said the report offers not just data, but also the perspective on why the community "has so much potential for future growth."
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