Guy Manning finds himself in a humbling waiting game with the economy.
A construction worker focused on home remodeling, Manning said he has been out of work since October.
He's far from alone. The Triad jobless rate rose to 10.2 percent in November from 9.5 percent in October, the N.C. Employment Security Commission reported Tuesday.
"I know with my skills that I typically can find work fairly easily, but nobody is opening the door right now," Manning said Tuesday while pursuing job-skills assistance at the Winston-Salem Urban League. "I've been in this business 20 years and have never seen it this bad.
"Companies and individuals are scared to spend right now, and that lack of spending is trickling down to everyone else, especially the little man like me."
The increase in the jobless rate in November erased four months' worth of gains. It was the largest monthly uptick since a 0.7 percentage-point increase in May 2009.
The rate for the Winston-Salem metropolitan statistical area rose to 9.3 percent from 8.7 percent in October. The area consists of Davie, Forsyth, Stokes and Yadkin counties.
The Forsyth County rate increased to 9.3 percent from a revised 8.7 percent.
Most economic barometers for the Triad took a negative turn, foremost a drop in people listed as employed (down 8,690 to 688,137) and an increase in those considered as jobless (up 5,485 to 78,472). The Winston-Salem statistical area had an overall loss of 700 jobs.
Michael Walden, an economics professor at N.C. State University, said that the November increase reflects people jumping back into the job market unsuccessfully, and companies tightening their work forces again.
"The higher unemployment rate resulted from an absolute reduction in jobs," Walden said. "These reductions were so large, and so out of line with previous reports, that some economists wonder if the numbers will be revised.
"I do think the pace of the state's economy slowed in the second half of 2010. However, I do look for increases in jobs in coming months."
The traditional jobless rate does not include several categories of people such as those who have stopped looking for work; are underemployed for their skills; are able to work full time but can only get part-time work; are receiving severance packages after the elimination of their jobs; or have exhausted their state and federal unemployment benefits.
A rate compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — the U6 index — includes those people. The latest update for North Carolina found that 17.6 percent of adults were without jobs as of Sept. 30, compared with 17 percent nationally in November.
"Demand for new hires will remain muted in the near term," said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies Ltd., a research company in Chapel Hill that specializes in economic and social policy.
"It likely will become further depressed in the wake of state and local budget cuts that probably will occur later in the year."
Lynda Jenerett reluctantly finds herself in the U6 index report. Jenerett, 56, has been without a full-time job since May 2008, gaining part-time work mostly on a week-by-week basis.
Jenerett said she has gained more confidence about her job prospects, particularly in call-center and receptionist work, since enrolling in a 90-day "skills refreshing" program aimed at people 55 and older at the Urban League.
"Before this program, I was frustrated beyond compare," Jenerett said. "This is helping me get the skills that employers say they want.
"I'm hoping with my work experience and these skills that when I complete the program at the end of January, it'll be hard for an employer to tell me 'No.' "
Quinterno said that keeping skills fresh is pivotal to getting hired.
"Increasing durations of unemployment raise the odds that the long-term unemployed will become effectively unemployable due to skills deterioration, stiff competition and negative stereotyping," Quinterno said.
"A lack of openings makes it harder for young workers and skilled graduates of college and training programs to find jobs.
"Left unchecked, a serious cyclical employment problem is at risk of becoming an intractable structural one."
rcraver@wsjournal.com
(336) 727-7376
Email
Facebook
Google
Twitter
Favorites
More
Advertisement