The Triad ended 2010 on a positive note with its job market.
How positive depends on whether the look in the economic rear-view mirror reflects a month or a year.
The Triad's jobless rate dropped 0.2 percentage points in December to 10 percent, the N.C. Employment Security Commission reported Tuesday.
The rate for the Winston-Salem metropolitan statistical area declined to 9.2 percent from a revised 9.4 percent in November. The MSA consists of Davie, Forsyth, Stokes and Yadkin counties.
The Forsyth County rate fell to 9.1 percent from a revised 9.4 percent.
However, five of the 14 counties in the Triad and Northwest North Carolina experienced an increase, foremost Alleghany County jumping from 11 percent to 11.9 percent.
As with most of the monthly rate drops in 2010, the biggest factors in the December decline appeared to be more Triad residents exiting the work force — thus not counted as unemployed — or taking contract or part-time jobs to boost their household income.
The commission reported the Triad's work force declined by 2,516 during December, while those listed as employed fell by 447.
"The unemployment rate decrease, taken by itself, does not tell the whole story," said Archie Hicks, the manager of the commission's Winston-Salem office.
The traditional jobless rate does not include several categories of people such as: those who have stopped looking for work, are underemployed for their skills, are able to work full time but can only get part-time work, are receiving severance packages after the elimination of their jobs or have exhausted their state and federal unemployment benefits.
A rate compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — the U6 index — includes those people. The latest update for North Carolina found that 17.4 percent of adults were without jobs as of Dec. 31, compared with 16.7 percent nationally in December.
"A more encouraging sign would be not only increased numbers in the labor force but also increased numbers of those employed," Hicks said.
Robert Whaples, an economics professor at Wake Forest University, prefers to take a year-over-year approach to measuring the job market.
From that perspective, he said, "the latest release looks very encouraging for workers in the local area."
For example, in Forsyth, the labor force is up by 1,019 and those listed as employed is up by 2,548 when comparing December 2010 with December 2009. The county jobless rate is down 1 percentage point in the same time.
"A 1 percentage point drop in the unemployment rate comes from declines in unemployment and increases in employment, not from discouraged workers dropping out of the job hunt," Whaples said.
"Local employment growth is in the private sector, a very healthy sign. The gradual national acceleration of economic growth suggests that our local unemployment rate will continue to slowly subside in the coming months."
John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, a Chapel Hill research firm, said taking a three-year look shows how little progress actually has been made in the overall job market.
He said North Carolina has shed 272,800 jobs since December 2007.
"Although a few of North Carolina's metro areas — notably Asheville, Charlotte, Durham-Chapel Hill, and Goldsboro — recorded modest levels of job growth in 2010, overall growth levels were insufficient to drive down unemployment," Quinterno said.
The Winston-Salem MSA had an overall loss of 600 jobs during 2010, led by a loss of 2,300 government positions. The Greensboro-High Point MSA — Guilford, Randolph and Rockingham counties — had a loss of 1,800 jobs.
"The contraction in the size of the labor force is a worrisome development," he said.
rcraver@wsjournal.com
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