Forsyth County could be on its way to another record year of foreclosure filings, according to first-quarter data released Tuesday by the N.C. Administrative Office of the Courts.
The agency reported that Forsyth had 629 filings in the quarter — on pace to have 2,516 for the year.
By comparison, there were 2,396 filings in 2010 — the 10th consecutive year that Forsyth has set a record.
Other counties in the Triad and Northwest North Carolina that could be on track for another record year are Davie, Randolph, Stokes and Wilkes, while Surry is just off.
North Carolina could also be headed to another record. It had 18,917 foreclosures in the first quarter — on pace for 75,668 for the year — compared with 67,854 in 2010.
Will Corbett, the director of the N.C. Home Foreclosure Prevention Project, cautioned that a foreclosure filing does not necessarily mean a loss of home. The agency's data also includes foreclosures on commercial real estate and second homes, he said.
Analysts say the main way the foreclosure pace will slow down is through job creation, particularly full-time positions, for households struggling to make their payments.
The Triad's jobless rate dropped to 10.3 percent in February from 10.7 percent in January. The March rate will be released today by the N.C. Employment Security Commission.
The average stay on initial unemployment assistance for North Carolinians is 18.2 weeks, the commission said Tuesday.
The uncertain nature of how long some federal unemployment benefits will last is adding to the anxiety felt by homeowners who are on the verge of missing mortgage payments, said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies Ltd., a research company in Chapel Hill that specializes in economic and social policy.
"All that puts more pressure on homeowners who have managed to keep current on their mortgage despite the loss of a job or jobs," Quinterno said.
Analysts also said two market dynamics are acting as a tug-of-war with foreclosures.
One is a self-imposed moratorium by some financial institutions connected to the "robo-signing" strategy in which servicers erroneously forced homeowners into foreclosure.
The other is financial institutions becoming more aggressive in pushing what they deem as unsalvageable mortgages through the foreclosure pipeline so they can write them off.
The UNC Center for Community Capital released three studies Tuesday, one of which focused solely on North Carolina's housing and foreclosure markets.
The study found that urban areas, such as Charlotte, are better able to weather significant short-term hits to housing prices because of their fundamentally strong economies. "These markets are likely to resume reasonable stability and growth as the national economy improves," the center said.
By contrast, some counties hit hard in recent years by the loss of traditional manufacturing jobs experienced a sharp increase in subprime mortgage loans as a means of offsetting "insufficient household income in the short term." Those loans ultimately led to high foreclosure rates as homeowners couldn't afford their payments as their mortgage rate increased.
Tony Plath, a finance professor at UNC Charlotte, said he doesn't believe the worst is over for the state's housing market.
He cited too many foreclosed and bank-owned properties still affecting pricing, as well as the suspension of some bank foreclosure actions. Both factors "are prolonging the agony in the residential real-estate market," he said.
"All things considered, we're stuck with a continuing mess in the residential mortgage market," Plath said.
"There's limited demand, limited financing availability, a massive quantity of inventory either on the market or being withheld from the market (by banks) pending stronger market conditions, and nearly 30 percent of all residences with a mortgage outstanding against them are under water."
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