RALEIGH
Researchers who initially projected that oil from the Gulf of Mexico disaster could threaten the North Carolina coast now believe that there is little chance that it will.
Despite the months of oil gushing from a blown-out undersea BP well off the coast of Louisiana, there's no sign that any of it has migrated into the Loop Current that could carry the spill around Florida and into the Atlantic.
Experts said yesterday that a random current has helped contain the oil around the site where the Deepwater Horizon rig exploded and sank, triggering the spill.
"Without that, we probably would be in trouble," said Roy He, an associate professor at N.C. State University in Raleigh who is an expert on marine sciences and coastal circulation.
A model by the National Center for Atmospheric Research released at the beginning of June projected that parts of the oil spill could come up the East Coast in July and August, just a few months after the April 20 explosion that killed 11 workers. The Loop Current typically carries water through the Gulf, around Florida and into the Gulf Stream, which quickly pushes water up to North Carolina's Outer Banks.
Adding to the initial concern of researchers were signs of a strong Loop Current that was reaching into the northern Gulf. But by mid-June it had lost power because of an opposing current -- known as an eddy -- that broke off and continues to control water flow in the region.
Larry Cahoon, a professor of biology and marine biology at UNC Wilmington, said he is pleased to see that there's little sign of oil on the surface of the Gulf. He had initially expected tar balls to come in a weathered form and now says he would be surprised if the Atlantic seaboard sees even that.
"The only wild card in there is the oil that's underwater," Cahoon said.
But he said that researchers off the coast of Florida have found little sign of oil anywhere near that state's tip.
"I think we're mostly out of the woods," he said.
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