Strong GOP run expected in N.C.

RALEIGH

The last time Republicans won a majority in the N.C. Senate was in the 1870s, but six Democratic retirements and the mood of the electorate have Republicans thinking this could be their year.

They've recruited candidates for all 50 Senate seats for the first time in years. Pundits look at voting trends, and see a potential Republican lean in several districts held by Democrats, including at least two in which the incumbent is retiring.

Democrats have traditionally dominated fundraising for state legislative races, but an analysis released on Thursday showed Republican Senate candidates outraising their Democratic counterparts over the past 18 months.

The fundraising success depended on a hefty infusion of loans from the candidates themselves to bolster the coffers, but the two parties are "in a virtual dead heat" when it comes to cash on hand for the coming November Senate elections, according to the North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation, a nonpartisan, pro-business research group.

State Sen. Pete Brunstetter, R-Forsyth, predicted a strong Republican push this year, which he said has been bolstered by improved organization and strong candidates. With economic recovery sputtering and a national backlash against the Democratic Congress and president, voters are "going to


be looking to


Republicans to offer some real solutions," Brunstetter said.

The most optimistic GOP strategists see a chance to take the House, but the academics and pundits say the Senate is where Republicans have a real shot.

A Republican takeover there would mean the end to state Sen. Marc Basnight's career as Senate Pro Tem, a powerful position with sway over the $20 billion state budget and numerous political appointments.

It also would give Republicans a stronger negotiating position during redistricting, the once-a-decade drawing of new voting lines based on the U.S. Census.

"It would be a tidal change for politics," said Gary Pearce, a veteran Democratic strategist. "There seems to be a lot of concern.... The Senate could be at risk."

Basnight could not be reached for comment.

State Sen. Linda Garrou, D-Forsyth, who is the chairwoman of the Democratic fundraising arm in the Senate, expressed confidence that her party would retain control come November.

"The Republicans have been measuring the curtains since I was elected in 1998," she said last week.

History

The last time Republicans controlled the state Senate was the session of 1869-70, when the dynamics of the post-Civil War era won them control of the entire legislature, according to the General Assembly's legislative library.

But this was short-lived, and Democrats -- then called the Conservative Party -- retook control the very next session. State Republicans had a resurgence in the mid-1890s and fused with the Populist Party to win a majority in the Senate. But that union, too, was short-lived, and race dominated the elections of 1898.

Democrats returned to power on a platform that included white supremacy, according to several histories, including The Election of 1898 in North Carolina by Nicholas Graham.

For the next 150 years Republicans were almost always in the minority, often counting Senate seats on one hand, according to the legislative library.

The party fared better in the House, but not by much. Republicans won the House in 1995 as part of a national GOP resurgence. Four years later, they were back in the minority, though the margin between Republicans and Democrats in the House remained close.

The two parties tied for control of the House -- with 60 seats apiece -- in 2003. But then state Rep. Michael Decker switched from the Republican Party to the Democratic, a move that later led to bribery charges and, along with other crimes, a prison sentence for Speaker of the House Jim Black.

Going into the Nov. 2 election this year, Democrats have 68 seats in the House to the Republicans' 52. In the Senate, Democrats hold 30 of the 50 seats.

Southeast could be key

In six of the Senate races this year, the Democratic incumbent isn't running for re-election. By comparison, only two Republicans are retiring.

Wilmington and the surrounding area will probably be a crucial battleground. Area senators R.C. Soles, Julia Boseman and Charles Albertson are all leaving their seats, and the GOP hopefuls there have significantly more money on hand than their Democratic opponents.

But in each case, most of this advantage comes from personal loans. And the Democrats have high-profile candidates for those seats, including a former House appropriations chairman, UNC Wilmington's former chancellor and a local district attorney.

"We've been planning for (these retirements)," said Garrou, D-Forsyth.

John Rustin is the executive director of N.C. FreeEnterprise, which rolled out its analysis of Senate fundraising last week. He called the current crop of Republican candidates "pretty formidable," particularly because some are wealthy enough to bankroll their own campaigns.

Rustin predicted that, regardless of which party comes out on top, "the margins in both chambers are going to be much narrower than they are now."

The pitches

Throughout the legislative session that ended July 10, the Republican mantra was that Democrats were spending too much money, doing too much borrowing and failing to plan for coming years, when federal stimulus money is scheduled to run out.

But a plan to spend much less -- such as the $3 billion figure Republicans typically mention -- would require massive cuts to the state budget. House Speaker Joe Hackney called the GOP approach "just way out rhetoric."

As November approaches, Democrats will argue that North Carolina's doing pretty well, despite the rough economy. Garrou cited a recent CNBC study that ranked North Carolina the fourth best state in the nation for business, up from last year's ninth-place ranking.

"Other states are laying off teachers, they're laying off police officers, they're closing state parks, and we're not doing anything like that," Garrou said.

Brunstetter acknowledged that it's easier to call for change from the minority than it is to govern. But he said GOP legislators aren't "down there just to watch somebody else run the show."

Pearce, a close adviser for Gov. Jim Hunt during his tenure, said if Republicans manage a takeover, "they might regret it."

"(Republicans have) always said, ‘Oh we can cut all this stuff out and it won't hurt anything,'" Pearce said. "Inevitably that is going to mean cutting education, and that's going to be tough."

ctfain@yahoo.com