An election filing period is like an extended Christmas for partisan politicos. They have made their lists and checked them twice, but they are still not quite sure what they are going to get until the candidates -- hoped for, goaded and real -- formally fork over their filing fees.
For Democrats in the 5th Congressional District, the yuletide metaphor isn't quite right.
Halloween or April Fool's Day would be closer to reality.
The only person who gets a gift is Representative-for-life Virginia Foxx, when she learns the names of the latest tomato cans who still believe that Mr. Smith can go to Washington.
(Quick, what's more useless than a Democratic primary in the 5th District? An ice-hockey tournament in Ecuador.)
Congratulations, Billy Kennedy. I take no particular delight in saying this, but dinner is served.
Of polls and research
The numbers have not changed substantially since the 5th District was drawn up by computer-modeling software after the 2000 census.
It is, was and probably always shall be a safe Republican district in the finest tradition of American gerrymandering.
The 5th has roughly 46 percent registered Republicans, 36 percent registered Democrats and 18 percent unaffiliated voters. Many of those lean right. Results of most local and state elections held in counties between Forsyth and Watauga underscore that.
The noncandidacy in 2006 of the one Democrat who conceivably had a chance to defeat Foxx -- Mayor Allen Joines of Winston-Salem, a gun-toting, pro-business politician with roots in Wilkes County -- is also instructive.
A prudent man not given to rash decisions, Joines paid a Democratic research group $12,000 to plumb the depths. The results, dear Democrats, were not encouraging.
As President George W. Bush's approval ratings began their nosedive nationally, nearly seven out of 10 voters in Northwest North Carolina voted for him in the 2004 elections. Barack Obama's surprise win in North Carolina didn't include the 5th District, as Republican challenger John McCain carried 10 of the 12 counties it comprises, either in part or whole -- Forsyth and Watauga being the exceptions.
Even with Joines' staunch support in Winston-Salem, the study determined that he would have had to spend $1.5 million to pump up his name recognition.
Check, please.
Fair, yet farfetched
Of all the numbers that stack against a Democratic challenger, this one is the most significant: According to the Center for Responsive Politics, Foxx had nearly $1.2 million in the bank as of Dec. 31.
Even if the 5th District were more balanced between Democrats and Republicans, a $1.2 million fundraising head start is too much to overcome in 10 months.
Since 1964, the re-election rate of incumbents in the U.S. House of Representatives has averaged 93.4 percent.
Unless an incumbent is entangled in a sex or bribery scandal -- sadly, that's not so farfetched these days -- he or she is going to win.
There is a solution, of course, that would level the playing field for such candidates as Kennedy.
Since we have another census this year -- and subsequently a new round of redistricting on the horizon -- the legislature could create an independent redistricting commission to draw up competitive state and congressional districts.
It makes sense. It's fair, and it would restore ownership of government to the people.
Such a commission is supported by a diverse range of political research groups and activists.
But it would take a courageous, bipartisan act of statesmanship.
And that's why it won't happen. What do you think this is? Christmas?
ssexton@wsjournal.com
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