Obama to explain war, exit strategy

When he speaks to the nation next week on his Afghanistan strategy, President Obama will face the central challenge of explaining why he is escalating an 8-year-old war that is increasingly unpopular with the American public, while outlining plans for leaving it.

Obama's prime-time remarks, tentatively scheduled for Tuesday, will begin the White House effort to sell his revised war plan -- which under one leading scenario calls for sending 30,000 additional U.S. troops -- to powerful skeptics within his party, reluctant allies abroad and an Afghan public uncertain whether international forces or the Taliban will win the war.

Administration officials say that the speech will outline a modest endgame for Afghanistan that would allow U.S. forces to leave and set a general time frame for achieving that result. The remarks will last about 40 minutes, officials said, about twice as long as then-President George W. Bush took to outline his Iraq "surge" strategy nearly three years ago.

Obama's speech is expected to include an appeal to NATO allies, which the president alluded to yesterday, saying that "one of the things I'm going to be discussing is the obligations of our international partners in this process."

"I've also indicated that after eight years -- some of those years in which we did not have, I think, either the resources or the strategy to get the job done -- it is my intention to finish the job," Obama said during a news conference with the visiting prime minister of India, Manmohan Singh.

"And I feel very confident that when the American people hear a clear rationale for what we're doing there and how we intend to achieve our goals that they will be supportive," the president said.

What is emerging from White House discussions is a plan favored by Defense Secretary Robert Gates that would deploy between 30,000 and 35,000 additional U.S. troops and call on NATO allies to contribute another 10,000 soldiers.

That would bring the total number of new allied troops to about 40,000, the number sought by Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan.

Gates is asking for help at a time when the European public, even more than Americans, opposes any military escalation in Afghanistan, and Obama has in the past told Gates that he doubts that NATO leaders will agree to send additional forces, according to White House officials.

But Gates' proposal has won a number of powerful advocates within the military and the administration, including Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. It appears to be the most widely supported option, although Obama advisers say he has yet to make known his final decision. There are now 68,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan.

Obama's decision to outline an escalation and an exit simultaneously is the result of months of deliberation over a military proposal to expand the war, with no assurance that doing so would result in a more stable Afghanistan. The debate exposed divisions within the administration over the U.S. commitment to Afghanistan and, for the second time this year, forced Obama to reconsider his goals for what he once called a "necessary war."

Much of Obama's deliberation, according to White House advisers involved in the process, has been focused not only on making sure that enough forces reach the battlefield but also on discouraging future troop requests if the security situation deteriorates. Obama has demanded that all troop options be explained in terms of realistic goals and timelines, an acknowledgment that the American public has limited patience for an expensive new military commitment at a time of economic hardship at home.

Some of Obama's most influential civilian advisers, led by Vice President Joe Biden, favor a more narrow counterterrorism strategy that would accelerate the training of Afghan forces and intensify aerial strikes against al-Qaida operatives in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Many congressional Democrats prefer Biden's approach, and Obama has been considering a proposal that would send 10,000 additional U.S. troops.

In his speech, White House advisers say, Obama intends to explain why his option is the right one to fight the Taliban, destroy al-Qaida and train Afghan troops to take over the fight. President Hamid Karzai said at his inauguration this month that he hopes the transition from U.S. to Afghan forces is complete within five years, giving the Obama administration a de facto timeline.

The phased deployment would allow Obama to evaluate military gains and Karzai's progress in strengthening the Afghan government. White House advisers say that Obama is looking for "off ramps" that would allow him to adopt a strategy more narrowly focused on al-Qaida if the one he chooses is not showing results.

Congressional Republicans are the chief advocates for sending additional troops to Afghanistan and have been pushing Obama to quickly accept McChrystal's full 40,000-troop request.

But cost is becoming a primary concern on Capitol Hill.

Congressional Democrats, in particular, have warned in recent days that the projected price tag of a new troop deployment could threaten Obama's domestic agenda amid growing public unease over the widening federal budget deficit.

The White House budget director, Peter Orszag, attended the final war strategy meeting Monday night at the White House, and Obama is expected to discuss the costs in his speech next week.

"No one has any illusion that this is the campaign, that you can just turn this thing around with a speech," a senior administration official said. "A lot of this strategy depends on things we can't control -- the Afghan government, the Taliban, the role of Pakistan. This is one of those issues that defines the extent and the limits of the president's power."