Poverty in Northwest N.C. appears to be rising

By: Wesley Young | JOURNAL REPORTER
Published: November 19, 2009

Poverty levels appeared generally on the rise in Northwest North Carolina in 2008, and experts say that the numbers are likely to get still higher before they come back down.

The Census Bureau estimated that about 14.9 percent of the people in Forsyth County were living in poverty in 2008, up from 13.6 percent in 2006 and 14.1 percent in 2007. Although the survey's margin of error was wide enough to mask any real change between the years, the average was trending up. The Census Bureau did say that the true percentage of Forsyth County residents in poverty was probably between 13.2 and 16.7 percent in 2008.

The highest estimated rate in 2008 was in Wilkes County, with about one in five people living in poverty. The lowest rate in Northwest North Carolina was in Davie County, but there the poverty rate was still more than 10 percent.

"With the economic distress that we have had in the area and unemployment for us at almost a historical high, my expectation is that we would have a big increase in poverty," said Matthew Dolge, the director of the Northwest Piedmont Council of Governments. "Some of these counties quite frankly have seen large job losses even before the economic decline. Folks who have had manufacturing jobs are moving into lower-paying positions and the level of poverty is going to increase."

The estimates also included data on median household income, which in 2008 ranged in the area from $52,408 in Davie County to $33,824 in Alleghany County. In Forsyth, median household income was $47,318.

Nationwide, the poverty level rose to 13.2 percent in 2008, after dropping from 13.3 percent to 13 percent between 2006 and 2007.

North Carolina's poverty rate rose to 14.6 percent from 14.3 percent in 2007, but there was wide variation between counties. The highest 2008 poverty rate was in Robeson County, where 30 percent were living in poverty. The lowest rate was in Union County, outside Charlotte, where 8.6 percent of the people were in poverty.

In most counties, poverty affected the young more than the general population. For instance, in Forsyth County, about 19 percent of children age 5 to 17 live in poverty.

"It is a part of the dynamic of single-parent and poor families," said Joe Raymond, the director of social services for Forsyth County. And the trend has been worsening, he said.

Dolge said that the numbers will likely continue to show rising distress in the area over the next year and a half. The private sector is starting to hire more temporary workers, he said.

Bill McCoy, a consultant with the Urban Institute at UNC Charlotte, said that towns that once relied on textile and furniture jobs may not see a recovery, barring developments not on the horizon.

"I think the commuting patterns are going to shift and the people living in those places are likely to have to go someplace else to find a job," McCoy said. "You think about what can come in to those places, and you just don't see it."

wyoung@wsjournal.com

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