North Carolina will be 37,000 to 75,000 people short of gaining a 14th seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, according to experts tracking U.S. Census Bureau estimates of state population.
The state's rate of growth dropped significantly in 2009, according to Census Bureau estimates released Wednesday. Although North Carolina added the third-highest number of people among the 50 states in 2009, the state's rate of growth fell to ninth place, down from fourth in 2008.
The state's population was estimated at 9,380,884 as of July 1, 2009, up 1.4 percent from 2008.
The chances of an additional North Carolina seat in the House of Representatives are "not very good but it is still possible," said Clark Benson, whose company, Polidata, provides political consulting and analysis based on demographic trends. Benson projected the 2009 estimates forward to 2010, and said that the numbers will leave the state about 75,000 people short.
"That is not a huge number to make up," Benson said. "The only way is if the growth rate exceeds what it was for the last 12 months. I would say North Carolina was the surprise last time."
Every 10 years, the census determines the size of each state's delegation in the House, which is set at 435 members overall.
So if North Carolina were to gain a seat, it would come at the expense of another state.
North Carolina picked up a 13th seat in the 2000 count, but only by a whisker over the state of Utah, and only after the military count was in and pushed North Carolina over the top.
The 2010 census should finally give Utah its fourth congressional seat, the experts say.
Other states solidly on track to gain one seats are Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina and Washington, with Texas gaining three or four seats, depending on the projection used.
States set to lose seats according to the projections are Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania (one each) and Ohio (losing two).
The number of seats a state has not only gives it clout in Congress but can influence the outcome of elections.
Kim Brace, the president of Election Data Services, another political consulting company that sifts numbers, said that John McCain could have picked up another 12 electoral votes had his company's 2010 projections been in effect for the 2008 election.
Obama still would have won, though.
Brace's most favorable projection for North Carolina shows it only 37,000 people short of a seat in 2010, and that's not counting any military people who are now overseas.
Brace's projection using the growth rate from 2000 to 2009 shows North Carolina 60,000 people short of a seat.
"We were kind of surprised, because in previous years it looked like there was a potential that North Carolina was right there on the border" of getting a 14th seat, Brace said.
The 2009 Census Bureau estimates show a major slowdown in the number of people abandoning the states of the Northeast, as they have been doing by the hundreds of thousands throughout the decade. During 2005, 400,000 more people left the region than moved into it, but in 2009, the domestic-migration loss there had been reduced to 145,000.
Thanks to international migration, the Northeast saw its first gain in overall migration since 2002. Domestic migration to the South slowed, from almost 600,000 in 2005 to 320,000 in 2009.
"It looks like the major part of the decline happened in the Midwest," Brace said, pointing to Ohio's projected loss of two seats.
In Forsyth County, local officials are emphasizing the importance of getting a complete census count in 2010.
That's a smart move, Brace and Benson agreed.
"It is very important because it raises awareness of a lot of people who do not understand what is going on," Benson said.
wyoung@wsjournal.com
727-7369
How many this count?
North Carolina has had some movement in the number of representatives it has in the U.S. House over the decades. Representation, which is based on population, is established during the taking of census each decade.
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
House seats 12 12 11 11 11 12 13 ?
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