Dole, Hagan attack each other's stands on the issues in race that's a lot closer than most would have predicted

RALEIGH -- In late January, Sen. Elizabeth Dole was sitting in her office on Capitol Hill when the president called.

The Senate was about to vote on an economic-stimulus package, and there were two proposals on the table: one supported by President George W. Bush and most Republicans, the other supported by Democrats.

Bush asked Dole, a fellow Republican, for her support. Dole, politely but firmly, said no. She thought the Democratic version was better for low-income workers and the unemployed.

As Dole's hard-fought battle for re-election enters its final week, this is the message her campaign is trying to get out: Dole is a strong and independent voice for North Carolina.

Dole's Democratic opponent, state Sen. Kay Hagan, wants voters to hear a different message.

"She voted with Bush 92 percent of the time," Hagan says of Dole in her campaign stump speech, drawing jeers of outrage from her crowds.

Hagan's tries to tie Dole to Bush, and Dole's tries to not get tied down, illustrate the hostile environment for Dole and many other incumbent Republicans around the country.

Dole, a fierce fundraiser with outstanding name recognition, was once considered almost unbeatable. Six years ago, she was elected easily to the seat that Jesse Helms vacated after 30 years. Many conservatives dubbed her Helms' natural successor.

But she now finds herself in the re-election fight of her life against Hagan, a state legislator who until recently was virtually unknown in most parts of North Carolina. The race, in many ways, has played out as a referendum on Dole.

North Carolina's other senator, Richard Burr of Winston-Salem, acknowledged how tough things have gotten for Republican incumbents. Burr is a Republican.

"To believe that she's in a head-to-head race right now, in the margin of error, is actually a relief," said Burr, who will be up for re-election in 2010.

A year ago, no North Carolina Republican would have expected to be relieved to hear that Dole was struggling to remain tied in polls this close to Election Day. An average of recent polls shows Hagan with a three-point lead over Dole.

Both Dole and Hagan said in interviews that they expect the presidential race in North Carolina -- where Barack Obama is in a dead heat with John McCain -- to affect the outcome of the Senate race.

"I think what's exciting is that North Carolina is in play right now," Hagan said. "I think people are excited about the presidential race, and I think that spills over into the election at large."

Dole said in an interview that she hopes some Obama voters will split their tickets and vote for her -- as clear an indication as any that times have changed since the Helms era. If Obama wins North Carolina or comes close, Dole will be counting on ticket-splitters.

"If you just somehow hope to wake up and have McCain up 10 (points in the polls), that's just not something that we've factored on," said Brian Nick, Dole's chief of staff. "So we're in a worst-case scenario."

Debating Dole's effectiveness

Asked recently to describe the biggest difference between herself and Dole, Hagan gave a quick one-word answer: "Effectiveness."

It was a direct reference to a survey by a nonpartisan group in Washington that ranked Dole 93rd in effectiveness out of all 100 senators. In contrast, Hagan, during her 10 years in the N.C. Senate, has consistently been ranked by a similar survey in the top 10 in effectiveness.

Dole's 93rd ranking became notorious during the campaign after the national Democratic Party blitzed North Carolina's airwaves with television ads that mocked the ranking. The ads also used age as a subtext by stating ambiguously that Dole "is 93."

She is actually 73. Hagan is 55.

Dole's campaign argues that the rankings provide an incomplete and inaccurate picture of a senator's effectiveness. For instance, one factor the group looks at is which committees a senator serves on.

Dole is a member of the banking committee and the armed-services committee -- not generally considered powerful committees. But she said she chose those committees because the banking industry and the military are so important to North Carolina.

Dole, however, also suffers from a reputation of not spending enough time in the state. The Winston-Salem Journal, after a review of Senate travel records and other public documents, reported last month that she spent just 13 days in North Carolina in all of 2006 on official Senate business.

Dole counters that she visited more frequently than that, but often paid her own way rather than billing taxpayers; hence, those trips would not appear in Senate travel records.

"You just don't put out a press release every time you're home," she said.

Still, there is a common perception in North Carolina political circles that Dole does not spend much time here. And her lack of visibility filters down to voters.

Nick argued last week that Hagan's charge of Dole being "out of touch" with North Carolinians does not conform to Dole's Senate record.

He's correct that each of Dole's major achievements in her first term relates directly to North Carolina. She passed the tobacco quota buyout, she supported measures to protect textile workers, she advocated on behalf of North Carolina's military bases when the military was considering base closures, and fought for federal recognition of the Lumbee Indian tribe, which has a large presence in North Carolina.

Hagan, for her part, has been a key budget writer in the N.C. Senate. In that capacity, she has overseen large pay raises for teachers, the creation of the Clean Water Management Trust Fund, and the start of a large cancer-research fund.

Trying to find challengers

Some national Democrats -- including Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, who runs the party's efforts in Senate races across the country -- have thought for a long time that Dole could be vulnerable.

But few Democrats in North Carolina used to shared that belief.

In 2007, the party tried, and failed, to recruit a long list of well-known Democrats to run against Dole. The list included Gov. Mike Easley, Rep. Brad Miller, Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue and State Treasurer Richard Moore. Even the names of former Gov. Jim Hunt and former Sen. John Edwards were thrown around.

No one wanted to run.

Hagan, too, initially declined -- but then, after persuasion from Schumer and Hunt, she reversed course and jumped into the race.

"I thought that if she did everything right, and a lot of people helped her, there was a chance" that Hagan could win, Hunt said. "But you had to say, way back then, running against Elizabeth Dole, that she would be a longshot."

Throughout the race, Hagan's apparent strategy has been to run a cautious, safe campaign that allows the focus to be on Dole rather than on her.

On controversial issues, she has been known to stake out noncommittal, middle-ground positions. For instance, she wants a "responsible withdrawal" of troops from Iraq, but she says she would not vote to cut off funding for the troops. She expressed "grave concerns" about the recent $700 billion economic bailout before Congress voted on it, but she did not announce her firm position -- that she opposes the bailout package -- until after the vote was taken. (Dole voted against the bailout.)

She sometimes declines to answer questions specifically because, she says, she wants to wait until she gets to Washington.

Even when asked what she considers her best accomplishment in the state legislature, Hagan gave a cautious answer.

"Balancing five budgets," she said.

But balancing the state budget is not exceptional. North Carolina's budget is balanced every single year, because the state constitution requires a balanced budget.

The Dole campaign is running a new TV ad criticizing Hagan as noncommittal.

"I am very firm in my views on the issues, and Kay Hagan is dodging and weaving and bobbing," Dole said in an interview. "It's like Margaret Thatcher said with regard to another crisis. She said this is not a time to go wobbly. I think Kay Hagan has gone wobbly on the major issues."

Jesse Helms' shadow

Both Dole and Hagan have political figures in their families. Dole's husband, Bob Dole, was the Republican presidential nominee in 1996. Dole herself made a brief run for president in 2000, and she also served previously as the U.S. secretary of labor and U.S. secretary of transportation.

Hagan's uncle, Lawton Chiles, was a U.S. senator and governor from Florida, and one of Hagan's earliest childhood memories is helping her uncle on his campaign.

Now Hagan is trying to do what was once unthinkable -- turn Jesse Helms' old Senate seat blue. Helms, even in death, still casts a large shadow over the seat. On the campaign trail, Hagan and Dole don't mention him much, but voters do.

"I don't think (Dole) takes care of her constituents," said Alice Buhl, 69, a consultant from Pittsboro who supports Hagan. "As awful as our previous senator was, he took care of his constituents." Buhl was referring to Helms, who had a strong reputation for his constituent services.

Jonathan Trogdon, 24, a student from Fayetteville, supports Dole because of her commitment to the military.

"She took on Sen. Jesse Helms' seat, and there is not a better person to occupy his seat. It was almost like a torch was passed."

For Dole, in this election, in this political environment, that may be a mixed blessing.

■ James Romoser can be reached at 919-210-6794 or at jromoser@wsjournal.com.

Journal Graphic by Nicholas Weir - Click to enlarge

U.S. Senate race

Elizabeth Dole (Republican)

• Age: 73.

• Lives in: Salisbury.

• Job: U.S. senator.

• Political / civic experience: From 1983 to 1987, served as U.S. secretary of transportation. From 1989 to 1990, served as U.S. secretary of labor. From 1991 to 1999, was president of the American Red Cross. In 2000, ran unsuccessfully for the Republican presidential nomination. In 2002, ran successfully for U.S. Senate from North Carolina and is now finishing her first term.

• Top priority if elected: "Getting our economy back on track."

Kay Hagan (Democrat)

• Age: 55.

• Lives in: Greensboro.

• Job: State senator.

• Political / civic experience: In 1998, ran successfully for the N.C. Senate and is now in her fifth term.

• Top priority if elected: "Advocate on behalf of working families to ensure they have an effective voice in Washington, D.C."

On the issues

Here's how Dole and Hagan stand on some issues in the Senate race:

Illegal immigration

• Dole: Very strongly supports the 287(g) program, which allows local law-enforcement agencies to identify and deport illegal immigrants who commit crimes. Opposes amnesty.Supports stronger border security.

• Hagan: Says 287(g) is a patchwork system and needs comprehensive reform. Opposes amnesty. Supports stronger border security. Wants to reform guest-worker programs and punish employers of illegal immigrants.

Health care

• Dole: Voted against a major expansion of the State Children's Health Insurance Program because it would have taxed tobacco. Opposes government-sponsored universal health care. Supports tax benefits to make health care more affordable.

• Hagan: Supports the goal of universal health coverage but has concerns about how to pay for it. Supports expanding the State Children's Health Insurance Program. Wants to prioritize preventive care. Wants to reduce costs by using electronic medical records and cutting back on waste.