If American Catholics were the monolithic block of voters marching in lock-step that Catholic bishops might wish them to be, they would all be voting for John McCain, and all on one issue -- abortion.
The problem is, this is 2008, not 1948.
If McCain loses his presidential bid, he might blame the Catholic bishops. There are more than enough Catholic voters to swing the election, and this year, the Catholic vote appears to be split right down the middle.
And it's not just over abortion.
Life issues are among the "non-negotiables" of official Catholic teaching. The bishops' election-year document, "Forming Consciences for Faithful Citizenship," says that other issues might outweigh abortion, but several individual bishops argue for the overriding primacy of life issues.
It's a tough question for Catholics. Do Barack Obama's health-care and living-wage proposals trump Catholic opposition to embryonic stem-cell research and so-called "partial-birth" abortions? Obama's positions strike against the core of anti-abortion belief, but his domestic policy platform appears to coincide with Catholic social teaching.
No matter that Obama promises to end existing federal abortion restrictions through the "Freedom of Choice Act." Disingenuous efforts to equate the tragedy of war with the tragedy of nearly 50 million abortions have half the nation's 67 million Catholics whirling in the Obama spin machine.
So what we're left with is about one-quarter of the country split nearly down the middle, half for Obama and half for McCain.
And here's why: Catholics simply do not listen to the bishops, and it's not just about hiding predatory priests and lying to investigators.
Catholics are beginning to wonder what, exactly, they're paying for. In an era of a shortage of priests, with parishes shuttered and Catholic schools on the endangered species list, church leaders are puttering along with business as usual.
In these lean economic times, everyone is having to make do with less. But the church continues with a bloated bureaucracy -- too many bishops leading too few priests and parishes. With modern advances in communication and transportation, why not cut the number of dioceses, or bishops, and leave more money for what the church should be doing -- helping the poor.
Put another way, rank-and-file Catholics are starting to connect the dots that span the distance between what the bishops say and what they do. If the bishops more obviously supported all the innocent and defenseless, especially women and children, they might stand a better chance of being heard.
Yet precisely because so many Catholics have tuned out what the bishops have to say, we might end up with a president who will lift federal restrictions on embryonic stem-cell research and who opposes parental notification before a minor has an abortion.
In my mind, these and other Obama policies reflect a very scary attitude toward human life. The philosophy -- if not the practice -- of euthanasia and eugenics is not far behind.
We all must vote Nov. 4. We all must take this election very seriously. If not the bishops, then listen to your heart. As the late Cardinal John O'Connor of New York often said, the life you save may be your own.
■ Phyllis Zagano is senior research associate-in-residence at Hofstra University and author of several books in Catholic Studies.
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