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Oscars: Top Ten
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Published: March 4, 2010
Updated: 03/03/2010 09:10 pm
The 2010 Academy Awards (airing at 7 p.m. Sunday on ABC) include a much longer list of Best Picture contenders than usual, with 10 movies up for essentially the show's grand prize.
Having such a long list isn't a new idea, but it hasn't been done since 1944, when the field was narrowed to five contenders. In 1943, Casablanca was the last film to have to beat out nine others for the top honor.
In e-mail interviews and by phone, we asked several local movie-industry insiders and observers what they thought of the expanded list, and what their predictions were for who would go home with a statue in the major categories.
The 10-picture list "allows films which should have been nominated to be nominated," Jordan Kerner, the dean of the School of Filmmaking at the UNC School of the Arts, said. "Whether it was a small film that did not garner an audience the first time around, or a studio and audience favorite not chosen, all are now able to get nominated."
He cited by example last year's exclusion of The Dark Knight, a critically acclaimed superhero movie.
"I would never want to see a film like (The Dark Knight) not get nominated," he said. "It was deserving of the award."
Renata Jackson, one of the founders of Films on Fourth and a professor at UNCSA, agreed.
"Doing this has, in fact, widened the pool to include quite a variety of genres," she said. "Not a bad consequence, in my opinion."
And the Best Picture nominees do cover a wide variety, with dramas (Precious, An Education, The Blind Side); lavish science-fiction movies (Avatar, District 9); comedies (A Serious Man, Up in the Air) and an animated family film (Up); and two war movies, one a serious dramatic piece (The Hurt Locker) and the other an over-the-top action film (Inglourious Basterds).
Mary Dalton, a communication professor at Wake Forest University, said she expects the larger field of candidates to boost this year's Oscar ratings.
"I suspect it will have the desired effect of attracting more viewers to the televised ceremony because of the ‘popular' films that have received nominations," she said. "Box office has already been good this year, but there could be an added boost for some pictures as a result of the nomination."
Andrew Rodgers, who runs the RiverRun International Film Festival, said that he is concerned that the large list of nominees will "water down the significance of being nominated."
Dave Loberg, the general manager at the Grand 18 Cinema on University Parkway, also wasn't sure about expanding the list to 10 nominees.
"I think it makes you wonder which five wouldn't have been nominated in a normal year," he said. "Though by having a bigger list, it is more inclusive."
Even with 10 nominees, Dalton said she felt one notable movie from last year, Bright Star, got left out.
"I usually come up with 10 favorite movies of the year and often have to juggle to arrive at that, but this year I do have two favorites that stand above the others: The Hurt Locker and Bright Star," she said. Both of them have achieved critical success, but Kathryn Bigelow's film (Hurt Locker) has received a great deal of additional attention while Jane Campion's film (Bright Star) has been overlooked. I loved them both."
Rodgers felt that the political satire In the Loop was overlooked, as was Sam Rockwell's performance as lead actor in the science-fiction film Moon.
As a voting member of the Academy, Kerner said he could not reveal his votes. But he predicted there would be a split vote on film and director between the year's two most prominent films, with either Avatar and Bigelow winning, or The Hurt Locker and director James Cameron (Avatar) winning.
The competition between Hurt Locker and Avatar is one of this year's biggest Oscar rivalries, amplified by the fact that directors Bigelow and Cameron were once married.
Rodgers said that he felt the battle between the two films is "a style vs. substance debate. Cameron's film is big, loud, splashy and a bit too dumbed-down for my tastes, whereas Bigelow's is smart, surprising and sophisticated."
Loberg said that based on audience response, he expects Avatar to steamroll the competition.
"When I first saw it, I had the same reaction when I first saw Titanic," he said, referring to Cameron's last blockbuster, which won an Oscar. "Lightning does strike twice."
And he feels Avatar will change the way people watch movies.
"It's revolutionized everything as far as 3-D," he said. "It's no longer just a novelty; it's the way of the world now."
Here are the major categories and some predictions:
Performance by an actor in a leading role
• Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart
• George Clooney in Up in the Air
• Colin Firth in A Single Man
• Morgan Freeman in Invictus
• Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker
Dalton's Pick: Jeff Bridges
Jackson's Pick: Jeff Bridges
Rodgers' Pick: Jeff Bridges will probably win, but he thinks Colin Firth should win
Loberg's Pick: Jeff Bridges
Performance by an actress in a leading role
• Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side
• Helen Mirren in The Last Station
• Carey Mulligan in An Education
• Gabourey Sidibe in Precious
• Meryl Streep in Julie & Julia
Dalton's Pick: Sandra Bullock
Jackson's Pick: Sandra Bullock
Rodgers' Pick: Sandra Bullock probably will win, but he thinks Gabourey Sidibe should win
Loberg's Pick: Sandra Bullock. "She's the people's choice," he said.
Achievement in directing
• James Cameron for Avatar
• Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker
• Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds
• Lee Daniels for Precious
• Jason Reitman for Up in the Air
Dalton's Pick: Kathryn Bigelow
Jackson's Pick: James Cameron
Rodgers' Pick: Though, he says, "this pains me greatly," he predicts James Cameron will win. He's rooting for Bigelow or Daniels.
Loberg's Pick: James Cameron
Best motion picture of the year
Dalton's Pick: The Hurt Locker
Jackson's Pick: Avatar (though she wishes Hurt Locker and Kathryn Bigelow would win, describing Avatar as "formulaic and predictable.")
Rodgers' Pick: He says he is "going on a limb here" and picking Hurt Locker to win, though he thinks Precious should win.
Loberg's Pick: "I think Avatar eclipses everything else."
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