Winston Salem Journal

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10.8% jobless rate holds

September eighth consecutive month at more than 10%

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Published: October 17, 2009

The latest state unemployment report, released yesterday, provided yet another batch of mixed economic news.

The jobless rate was unchanged in September at 10.8 percent, the N.C. Employment Security Commission reported.

However, it is the eighth consecutive month that the figure has been higher than 10 percent, peaking at 11.1 percent in May.

Moses Carey Jr., the chairman of the commission, said "the fact that the unemployment rate remains about the same as it has been for months is a sobering point."

There was a net gain of 12,553 North Carolinians in the state's work force during September to 4.53 million, including nearly 9,700 who landed a job.

However, the majority of the 13,000 increase in government jobs likely came from public-school teachers having their contracts renewed, thus being counted as employed again by the commission.

There were 2,857 more North Carolinians considered as unemployed during the month compared with August, or 491,766 overall.

The state had a loss of 6,500 jobs in the trade, transportation and utilities sectors, 4,800 in professional and business services and 1,700 in educational and health services.

The other bright spot was a net gain of 2,200 jobs in construction after months of job decline.

"The key number is the increase of almost 10,000 jobs in the state," said Michael Walden, an economics professor at N.C. State University. "While one month doesn't make a trend, it is encouraging, nonetheless, that more people were working in the state in September."

Walden cautioned that although it appears the economy is taking some small steps forward, "it will still be several months before we will likely see consistent, steady improvements in hiring."

Todd Cherry, an economics professor at Appalachian State University, said that unemployment "will be one of the last places we see improvement because hiring decisions will only come after general activity picks up."

"If we have reached the peak of unemployment, we avoided some of the worst-case scenarios that many expected," Cherry said.

Mark Vitner, a senior economist for Wells Fargo Securities LLC, said that the recent stabilizing of the jobless rate may have been "a bit misleading" because there was less hiring for summertime jobs than typical, and fewer people in the work force.

"All of these factors helped hold down the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate over the summer," Vitner said. "We will likely see the unemployment rate rise over the next few months and into the early part of 2010."

rcraver@wsjournal.com | 727-7376

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