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Jobs view still dim; despite the recovery, most businesses aren't ready to rehire
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Published: October 3, 2009
WASHINGTON
Job hunters will face long odds well into next year. As the unemployment rate inches closer to 10 percent, most businesses are nowhere close to hiring again.
Uncertain about prospects for recovery -- the economy's and their own -- employers cut 263,000 jobs in September, the government said yesterday. Unemployment crept up to 9.8 percent.
As the economy slowly turns around, sales are slowly growing, and many companies are starting to make money again. But they're doing it by cutting costs, squeezing more work out of fewer employees, and relying on part-timers and cheap overseas labor.
Until companies are confident that the recovery is here to stay, they will probably keep laying off workers. The economy lost 62,000 more jobs in September than in August, and the unemployment rate notched up from 9.7 percent to a new 26-year high.
Most economists say that the recession is probably over, but the recovery isn't robust enough to embolden businesses to hire again.
"Fear is a large factor for many companies," said Michael Williams, the dean of the graduate school of business at Touro College in New York. "What happens after the government's stimuli end? Does the recovery morph into something durable, or is there an abyss on the other side?"
President Obama called the jobless figures a sobering reminder that progress to reverse the recession will come in fits and starts.
Employers are expected to continue cutting payrolls for six to nine more months. Economists think that the jobless rate will go as high as 10.5 percent around the middle of next year before declining gradually.
It could take three or four more years for unemployment to return to normal levels. The worst recession since the Great Depression has already claimed 7.2 million jobs, and analysts figure that 750,000 more jobs could disappear over the next six months.
The drumbeat of job losses is creating fear that Americans won't start spending again and the recovery may fizzle. Some worry that the economy might succumb to a "double-dip" recession -- meaning that it would stop growing and start shrinking again.
"This recovery looks like roadkill," said Christopher Rupkey, an economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi. "The heavy layoffs have stopped, but there are simply no new jobs available, and the harder the jobs are to get, the harder and longer this road to recovery is going to be."
After the recession of 1981 and 1982, the economy added 1.2 million jobs in the first six months of recovery. By contrast, after the 2001 recession, the economy lost 1.1 million jobs before unemployment peaked two years later. It was labeled as a jobless recovery.
Economic historian John Steel Gordon said that this could be a jobless recovery, too, with businesses wringing more work out of the employees they still have and relying on part-time and overseas help.
"It's actually worse now," he said. "Companies aren't going to hire until it becomes obvious we're back in a lasting growth cycle."
Until then, economists think, the few industries creating jobs will probably include health care, education, legal services, data processing and transportation. And early next year, the federal government will be hiring for the 2010 census.
All told, 15.1 million Americans are out of work -- twice as many as at the start of the recession. Counting laid-off workers who have settled for part-time work or just given up, the unemployment rate is 17 percent, the highest on record since 1994.
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