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Elections serve up insight
Obama influence has limits, economic issues still rule
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Published: November 5, 2009
WASHINGTON - What we learned from the off-year elections: The president's influence is limited, independents rule, incumbents beware, issues trump ideology, and, once more, "It's the economy, stupid."
Also: Republicans can win -- even if they lack a leader and their base is cracked. And this certainly isn't the Democratic-friendly political environment of 2006 and 2008 when the party captured control of Congress and the White House.
The first Election Day of Barack Obama's presidency was a big night for Republicans, who recaptured governorships in the swing state of Virginia and the Democratic stronghold of New Jersey. Democrats won two races for vacant congressional seats, including one in upstate New York that had been long held by Republicans and that exposed a GOP divide.
Democrats and Republicans, predictably, offered different assessments of the results.
An ebullient Republican Party Chairman Michael Steele asserted yesterday that GOP victories in New Jersey and Virginia demonstrate "a transcendent party" on the move again. Democratic Party Chairman Tim Kaine said that nothing about the election returns amounted to a repudiation of Obama.
Who's right? What did we learn about politics, people and their priorities from the handful of races on Tuesday? And how will those lessons shape the maneuvering of Republicans and Democrats ahead of 2010 midterm elections, when Obama's prestige will be put to the test across the country?
Here are some of the lessons learned:
□ Obama's political power is limited: The broad coalition -- minorities, young people, first-time voters, Republican crossovers and independents -- that fueled his victory was a 2008 phenomenon. It can't be counted on if the man himself is not on the ballot. Even though Obama personally implored his supporters to turn out in droves, voters rejected incumbent Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine in New Jersey and Democratic candidate R. Creigh Deeds in Virginia.
□ Independents are kingmakers: Voters who don't claim a political party again proved their value by propelling Republicans to victory in Virginia and New Jersey one year after carrying Obama to the White House.
Democrats must figure out a way to bring independents back into their fold -- or risk big losses next fall. Still, Republicans must be mindful of the volatile nature of public attitudes, for independents who have moved toward the GOP since last fall could just as easily move back to the Democrats by next November.
□ Incumbents beware: This means Obama, as well as Democrats who control Congress and even Republicans in certain seats. If you are in office, voters are coming after you.
In the midst of recession, people vented their frustrations by ousting Democrats from power in New Jersey and Virginia. And Democrat Bill Owens won a House seat held for decades by Republicans in a special election in upstate New York.
□ Issues trump ideology; the economy trumps all: Voters have spoken: Such issues as God, guns and gays take a back seat in a recession.
In Virginia, Bob McDonnell proved that a socially conservative Republican can win in a Democratic-trending state if the focus is on pocketbook issues. Deeds went after McDonnell over conservative positions on so-called values issues but the Republican didn't take the bait. In New Jersey, Chris Christie -- a moderate Republican -- found success by sticking to core local issues, taxes and jobs.
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