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Fast-growing counties fell hard in recession
Those that had diversified economies bucked the trend
AP Photo
The revitalized pedestrian plaza in downtown Raleigh shines with $500,000 decorative street lights.
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Published: November 2, 2009
RALEIGH - In the state capital's downtown core, $500,000 decorative street lights beam down on bustling crowds who have come to dine and play along a recently revitalized pedestrian plaza.
A few states to the south, the lamp posts shine largely on empty lots in a subdivision outside Orlando where only a third of the 95 planned homes have been built.
Wake County, N.C., and Lake County, Fla., shared the spoils of the real-estate surge as two of the nation's 100 fastest-growing counties of this decade, until the recession hit and their paths diverged.
Most of the places on that list, including Lake County, coughed up their quick gains. The AP Economic Stress Index -- a score based on a county's unemployment, foreclosure and bankruptcy rates -- shows that the nation's 100 fastest-growing counties have, as a whole, fared worse than the national average since the start of the recession.
Yet 42 of those 100 counties are bucking that boom-then-doom trend, including one west of Des Moines, some in northern Virginia and the Texas counties outside Austin, Dallas, Houston and San Antonio, according to the AP's analysis.
The fast-growing areas that have been resilient tend to have large, diversified economies, researchers and business leaders said.
"When one industry goes down, it doesn't just take down the whole region," said Duane Dankesreiter, vice president of business information and research at the Dallas Regional Chamber, explaining that a diverse job market has developed over time there, drawing on technology, finance and energy. "We're able to absorb the hit much better."
The areas often owe the favorable mix of jobs to recruiting by local leaders. Raleigh and nearby communities have spent decades courting pharmaceutical and technology companies to an area that's long benefited from state government, university and health-care jobs.
The effort has paid dividends during the downturn: LED lighting maker Cree Inc. recently announced that it was adding more than 500 jobs in Durham. Deutsche Bank AG announced this summer it plans to open a technology development center the Raleigh suburb of Cary, bringing more than 300 jobs with wages at twice the county average.
Adrienne Cole, executive director of Raleigh Economic Development, said while the region's large construction industry has taken a hit, the other sectors helped provide stability. Wake County's unemployment rate of 8.3 percent in September falls below both the national average of 9.8 and the state's 10.8 percent jobless rate.
"I think we could argue that we were one of the last communities in the recession and we'll be one of the first communities out," Cole said.
Dallas County, Iowa, has worked hard to woo financial companies. About 10 years ago, Dallas County was predominantly rural and agricultural. But the county's civic and business leaders in recent years lured new jobs to the area by smoothing the way for interested companies to receive state economic development grants.
Nowadays, almost a fifth of the county's work force is in the financial services or insurance industries. The county had a stress score of 6.38 in September, compared with 4.02 in December 2007, a modest change.
The newly built Methodist West Hospital just opened there, joining recent building expansions by Wells Fargo and Aviva USA. Unemployment was 5.1 percent in September, almost half of the national average.
Reasonable housing prices have helped Rockwall County, Texas, on the outskirts of Dallas, corral transplants drawn to the area's diverse mix of energy and technology jobs. While the bedroom community has lost some shops, its tax revenues are stable and people continue moving there, said Margie Hooper, president of the Rockwall Area Chamber of Commerce.
"We have seen a strong migration from California," Hooper said. The housing market in that state "was still so inflated that, if they could sell, they could come here and purchase a property for cash and bank the rest of it. We saw that quite a bit," she said.
The eighth-fastest growing county between 2000 and 2008, Rockwall's stress number has increased only from 6.9 to 10.41 since the start of the recession. By comparison, Clark County, Nev., home to Las Vegas, has increased from 10.6 to 23.83.
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