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Recent goofs may make local elections a horse race
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Published: July 2, 2009
Don't look now but the 11-day filing period for would-be municipal office holders opens at 8 a.m. Monday.
That means potential mayors, aldermen and council members can fill out some paperwork and fork out $5 to officially enter races in towns from Bethania to Winston-Salem (It costs $10-$20 to run in Kernersville).
Judging by voter turnout in recent municipal elections, this official opening to campaign season would normally be noted only by a small number of hard-core political animals, campaign staff/advisors and the candidates themselves.
But because of unforeseen circumstances -- a public loan/bailout of the baseball stadium in downtown Winston-Salem, to name one -- there have been rumblings that this year's races in Camel City might be spirited.
"We think some of the races will be competitive," said Nathan Tabor, the chairman of the Forsyth County Republican Party and a chief arm-twister for potential GOP candidates. "The ballpark has morphed into a larger-than-life issue. With the tree ordinance, the housing authority scandals, city employees not getting raises and support for the Dell project, there's definitely an opening."
By the numbers
If you're one of those frustrated souls considering a campaign, you will do well to review and consider a few statistics and facts before digging for that $5-spot.
□ Democrats -- the party of choice for seven of the eight council members and Mayor Allen Joines -- hold a 54.4 to 25.7 percent registration edge over Republicans in Winston-Salem. (Unaffiliated voters account for most of the rest.)
□ In the city's eight wards, the Democrats hold at least a 10-percentage-point registration edge in seven and at least a 20-percent registration edge in five wards.
Of those eight wards, five -- North, Southwest, Northwest, East and Southeast -- feature races in which challengers have announced their intention to run. Two of those (East, Southeast) will be Democratic primaries.
Because they have the largest percentage of registered unaffiliated voters among the eight wards, only two -- the Southwest and the Northwest, with 24 percent each -- have real potential to be competitive, and that will depend on the effort (and money) put forward by Republican challengers Ted Shipley (Southwest) and Peter Sorensen (Northwest.) Still, the Democrat incumbents Dan Besse (Southwest) and Wanda Merschel (Northwest) enjoy substantial party registration advantages.
□ In the mayoral race, Joines is loaded. According to a campaign-finance report received in January, Joines had $61,937.90 in the bank even before the filing period opens. Assuming he doesn't get another dime in contributions, that adds up to more than $5 for every vote cast (11,713) in the 2005 election.
That's a hefty head-start, and you can be certain that there's a lot more where that came from should an opponent emerge before filing closes at noon July 17.
Winning won't be cheap
Should a credible Republican candidate emerge, the race to watch will be the mayoral contest, as Joines is the real political muscle for the large economic projects. Asked whether his party has any such candidates, Tabor said that the GOP has two who are "95 percent of the way there."
He wouldn't name them, however.
"I can't just yet because if they decide they don't want to run, there's no sense in putting their names out there," he said. "But both are connected to business in the city."
It's hard to imagine another candidate being more business friendly than Joines, but we'll see.
"To beat the mayor, I've been telling people don't do it unless you have $250,000 to $300,000 to spend," Tabor said.
Carpet bombing the voters with direct mail and advertising won't come cheap. Whatever else you might think of Tabor from past campaigns, he knows how to do political marketing.
"If ever anybody was going to beat Allen Joines, this would be the year to do it with all the things that have gone wrong," Tabor said.
Maybe. But with a $62,000 head start and more than a 2-to-1 advantage in voter registration, Joines probably isn't sweating over whatever Republican decides to start the process by shelling out a $5 filing fee.
■ Scott Sexton can be reached at 727-7481 or at ssexton@wsjournal.com.
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