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Winston-Salem officials say that census figure is off again
City's population exceeds the bureau's estimate of 217,600, they say
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Published: July 2, 2009
Updated: 07/02/2009 12:55 am
Winston-Salem officials are once again disputing population estimates from the U.S. Census.
New census data put the city's population at 217,600 as of July 1, 2008, but city officials say that Winston-Salem has a lot more residents than that figure.
They say that the city's population should be around 226,000, making it the fourth largest city in the state.
The disputed estimates put Winston-Salem in fifth place -- behind Durham, which has an estimated population of 223,284 -- among North Carolina's largest cities.
"We would be No. 4 instead of No. 5," City Manager Lee Garrity said.
Charlotte, with a population of 687,456, is the largest city in North Carolina. Raleigh came in second with 392,552, and Greensboro was third with 250,642.
This is the second time that city officials have challenged population estimates from the U.S. Census.
Last year, the census pegged the city's population at 215,348, as of July 1, 2007. But after city officials appealed, the bureau adjusted the number to 223,532 in January. The city submitted information on building permits and other data to persuade the bureau to revise its estimate.
Greg Harper, a demographer for the U.S. Census, said that the 2007 adjustment did not come in time to incorporate it into the 2008 population estimates.
Paul Norby, the city-county planning director, said he sent an e-mail to the Census Bureau yesterday, saying that the city plans to appeal.
"It's certainly more than what they're saying today," he said. "I'm still not sure how they can say that when they sent a letter in January saying we were at 223,000."
Getting the right population figure is important, city officials say, because some federal and state money is allotted based on population.
"It means actual dollars to the community," Mayor Allen Joines said. "We picked up close to $100,000 of extra stimulus money because of the higher population figure (for 2007). It has a tangible impact to the city."
And some companies also consider population when they are looking to expand into a community, Joines said.
According to the new population estimates, the city of Winston-Salem added 2,925 people between July 1, 2007, and July 1, 2008, a 1.4 percent increase.
Cary and Raleigh were among the 25 fastest-growing cities in the country. Cary was ranked third, and Raleigh came in eighth.
New Orleans was the fastest-growing city in the country. It grew 8.2 percent between July 1, 2007, and July 1, 2008, and is nearing its population level before it was devastated by Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
Cities across the country saw population growth, reversing a decade-long trend. Demographers and local officials say that the housing crisis, the recession and higher gas prices have slowed the migration to the suburbs.
"Suburban sprawl may not be dead, but it's certainly on hiatus," said Mark Mather, the associate vice president of the nonprofit Population Reference Bureau. "Even if the economy recovered tomorrow, it might take a while for people to change their behavior. Attitudes just don't change overnight."
Norby said he has seen the trend locally, as well, but cautioned that urban sprawl remains a reality.
"There are some studies that the Triad area in general is No. 2 in sprawl in the whole country," he said. "People are driving longer and longer for what they need to do. That still remains a challenge."
But Norby and Joines said they have seen more development in the city, particularly in the downtown area.
Higher gas prices are making people think more about their commute from home to work, Norby said.
"That's hurting people in their pocketbook," he said. "Some people are rethinking where they want to live from that perspective, as well."
■ Michael Hewlett can be reached at 727-7326 or at mhewlett@wsjournal.com.
■ The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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