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No Fear: Deacs, Devils not dead yet
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Published: February 6, 2009
Duke and Wake Forest resemble distinct cousins from parallel universes.
They started out in other towns, affiliated with churches, and moved to richer grounds on the beds of tobacco wagons. They're private. They're expensive. Today, in the haggard middle of ACC basketball season, they're reeling from 27-point road losses and trying to remember the good old days.
Those were great days, really, going all the way back to.... last week and the week before. Wake Forest overwhelmed Clemson on the same Saturday afternoon Pitt lost. The Deacons climbed to first in the AP poll. The mythical reign lasted two days, until Virginia Tech showed up full of attitude.
Duke jumped into the void, snatching No. 1 for the first time in three seasons. That sensation also lasted two days, until the Blue Devils ventured into Joel Coliseum and mangled the defensive assignments on an inbound play, handing Wake Forest a winning layup.
Things happen, but things seldom fall apart so completely or so quickly. Wake Forest followed its fabulous breakthrough with two breakdowns, the first at Georgia Tech and the second Wednesday night at Miami. Duke regained a semblance of footing against Virginia, currently the consensus pick as the worst ACC team, but repeatedly emitted signs of lifelessness at Clemson.
Coach Mike Krzyzewski resorted to five-man substitution waves and quiet contempt in the second half, his lips tight and cheeks red. "We had no chance of winning this game -- none," Krzyzewski said. He was right.
Now that everything has gone wrong for the Blue Devils and Deacons (who shot 30.8 percent and 31.8 percent, respectively), some of their fans have thrown up hands and thrown in towels. Their message, whether implicit or laced with expletives: It's all over now.
But it isn't. Really.
Teams can lose their invincibility in mere days. North Carolina, 36-2, won 15 straight heading into the NCAA semifinals last April but promptly fell behind 40-12 against Kansas. Sometimes teams can fumble a sure thing in a matter of minutes. Two nights after Carolina's exit, Memphis grasped the certainty of its national championship, at least until Kansas nailed a tying 3-pointer and dominated overtime.
When teams take dips, external factors sometimes make a big difference. Wake Forest had a week off before beating Carolina. Clemson had nearly a week off before beating Duke. Georgia Tech had nearly a week off before beating Wake Forest. The rested home team won each time.
Wake Forest and Duke looked far more vulnerable Wednesday than a month earlier, but conditions can change between now and March 19, opening day for the NCAA Tournament.
Comebacks and turnarounds dot the historical landscape. Carolina trashed Duke 96-74 in the 1991 ACC final. Duke won the national championship. Duke beat Maryland by 21 points in January 2002. Maryland won the national championship. Wake Forest, in its other season replete with a No. 1 ranking, wiped out Carolina 95-82 in January 2005. Carolina won the national championship.
Georgia Tech lost seven ACC games and nine overall in 2004 yet reached the NCAA final against Connecticut. N.C. State lost 10 games on the way to "Cardiac Pack" immortality in 1983. In 2000, Coach Bill Guthridge's last season, the Tar Heels limped into the tournament with 13 losses but rode into the Final Four on the curiously broad shoulders of pass rusher Julius Peppers.
There are precedents. There is unprecedented craziness afoot in the shoe-driven basketball marketplace. Nobody seems comfortable as No. 1 this season, and nobody seems uniquely suited for a long run as No. 1, the spot now held by shot-swatting UConn.
Carolina, the original choice, operates with less panache and fewer bodies than preseason geniuses imagined. Tyler Hansbrough, his start slowed by potentially serious shin problems, hasn't returned to the phenomenal 2008 form that made him consensus national player of the year.
At least he's still bending rims and scoring points. Injured Marcus Ginyard, the team's best defender by several miles, will not return for the stretch run. The Tar Heels might have to rely on outscoring opponents, a dangerous proposition in tournament basketball and especially dangerous if they don't retreat on defense any faster than against Maryland Tuesday night. Coach Roy Williams was so livid, he could hardly speak during one timeout.
Coach K, seething over a no-show performance, mirrored that exasperation at Clemson. The Tigers' two offensive mainstays, 6-5 K.C. Rivers and 6-7 Trevor Booker, couldn't deal with the taller bodies and longer arms of Wake Forest defenders. Carolina drilled them 94-70 in Chapel Hill. Against Duke, however, Rivers and Booker were tall enough and open enough to enjoy a field day, along with bomber Terrence Oglesby.
Clemson's press and Clemson's lead forced Duke into a 94-foot game at a faster-than-optimal pace. With Jon Scheyer still mired in a slump and other shooters misfiring, the Blue Devils couldn't ignite a rally from outside. Their defense collapsed, and they lost by the largest margin since the 1990 title game against Nevada-Las Vegas.
The tenacity presumably will return, but the basic issues that haunted Duke late last season (no big men, no legs, no 3-point magic) could become the hurdles again.
Miami resorted to a zone against Wake Forest. It worked, giving ideas to others. The Deacons made their opening two volleys from 3-point land and converted one of the next 18. Ouch. The September question returns: Besides Jeff Teague, who will make jumpers?
The defense and confidence that defined the new team personality somehow drifted away during the Atlanta trip, which happens when you blow a solid lead in the fading minutes through casual errors, missed foul shots and butchered inbound plays.
Even amid the rubble of falling skies and sinking expectations, these qualities are retrievable, with so much time left on the clock.
■ Lenox Rawlings can be reached at lrawlings@wsjournal.com.
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