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Voters joining the growing ranks of N.C.'s unaffiliated say they examine both sides, vote for the person
Journal Photos by David Rolfe and Walt Unks
Local unaffiliated voters include (clockwise from top) Jerry Wise, Joseph and Antigone Peek, Judith Saxton and Bob Kushner.
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Published: September 21, 2008
RALEIGH - North Carolina's political makeup is changing, and it's because of Judith Saxton. And people like her.
Saxton, who teaches trumpet at the UNC School of the Arts, doesn't think much of partisanship. She's registered as unaffiliated -- one of 1.3 million North Carolina voters who choose not to sign up with a political party.
"I see both sides very clearly and have an appreciation of what both sides are saying and doing," Saxton said. "In the past 10 years, there were good and bad candidates on both sides."
Unaffiliated voters -- otherwise known as independents -- represent a growing share of the state's electorate. In 2004, 18.5 percent of the state's voters were unaffiliated; now, with less than two months before the 2008 election, that portion is up to 21.9 percent.
With greater numbers comes greater political clout. "As in many other states,
independents determine the race," said Marc Farinella, the state director for Sen. Barack Obama's campaign in North Carolina.
Saxton also represents a demographic shift. She is not a native North Carolinian. She grew up in New York and Pennsylvania, spent some time in the Midwest, and moved to Winston-Salem two years ago.
The influx of newcomers into North Carolina -- mostly from Democratic states in the Northeast and Midwest, and mostly into North Carolina suburbs -- has the potential to permanently shift voting patterns here.
"There are so many folks moving here who are more used to having Daniel Patrick Moynihan as their senator than Jesse Helms," said Tom Jensen, a Democratic pollster, comparing the late Democratic senator from New York with Helms, North Carolina's late conservative lion.
Together, the political and demographic trends have some Democrats looking at North Carolina -- long a predictable red state in national elections -- through purple-colored glasses.
Republicans, though acknowledging a less-than-ideal environment for their party, think that Democrats are overstating their chances here. Obama has a large organization in North Carolina and will appear in Charlotte today, after his wife traveled Thursday to Greensboro and his running mate, Sen. Joe Biden, spoke in Charlotte a week ago. Still, Sen. John McCain continues to lead in polls of North Carolinians.
"This is a tough year for Republicans -- people are mad," said Buzz Jacobs, the Southeast regional campaign manager for McCain. "We are obviously treating it (North Carolina) as a competitive state, and we will not take our foot off the gas pedal until Election Day."
On Nov. 4, the top races on North Carolina's ballot may hinge on Saxton and other voters like her. They are considered by pollsters to be more "persuadable" than entrenched members of either party -- and they also are more likely to split their tickets, voting for a Democrat in one office and a Republican in another.
Saxton supported Hillary Clinton in North Carolina's pivotal May primary, and said she is now leaning toward Obama over McCain. She also is leaning Democratic in the race for governor, although she said she could still change her mind in that race. And she's unsure in the U.S. Senate race, although she praised Elizabeth Dole, the Republican incumbent, as "good people," and said she sees some advantage in Dole's experience.
"I don't have to blindly go in one direction or the other," Saxton said. "A lot of people go with one camp and shut themselves off."
A split-party history
For years, North Carolina's political complexion has been peculiar, but fairly predictable.
Since 1980, the state has voted solidly Republican for president and largely Republican for the U.S. Senate. That trend hasn't carried over to the U.S. House and state-level offices. And in terms of party affiliation, registered Democrats have long outnumbered registered Republicans.
An important force in this pattern has been the large number of white, socially conservative Democrats, especially in rural areas and the eastern part of the state. Despite the party listed on their voter registration cards, these voters tend to vote Republican in national elections.
But as more newcomers populate the state, conservative Democrats who are native to the state are being displaced in the electorate by new suburban voters who appear to reverse the old phenomenon.
A recent study by Public Policy Polling, a North Carolina polling firm, revealed a curious paradox. Newcomers to North Carolina are less likely to register as Democrats than North Carolina natives -- but the newcomers are more likely to actually vote for Democrats.
Indeed, independents who are not natives are actually more likely to support Obama than native Democrats, the polling firm found. The results are based on a survey of 2,066 North Carolinians conducted Aug. 20-23.
Democrats see more good news in overall voter registration numbers. Since January, the N.C. Democratic Party has registered more than eight times as many voters as Republicans have.
A large factor was undoubtedly the competitive Democratic primary in May, in which Obama and Clinton launched aggressive registration drives months before the McCain campaign ever set up offices and workers here.
In the general election, the Obama campaign has continued its registration efforts. Obama has focused especially on increasing turnout among black voters and young voters who may have never voted before.
Those efforts supplement political trends that are being seen nationwide. Nationally, with an unpopular president, an unpopular war and a bad economy, nearly every state in which voters register by party has seen new Democratic registrations outnumber new Republican ones.
It all adds up to North Carolina being a potentially competitive state in the presidential election for the first time since 1992, when Bill Clinton narrowly lost the state to George H.W. Bush. No Democratic presidential candidate has won the state since 1976. Four years ago, George W. Bush carried it by 12 points over John Kerry.
"North Carolina is a very different place than it was four years ago. The dynamics here are very different," Farinella said. "There have been hundreds of thousands of new residents moving in from the Midwest and the Northeast. That's greatly changed the political dynamics here.… Add to that the issues that are driving this election, and the enthusiasm that Barack Obama has brought to the campaign. It's a very different day in North Carolina."
‘This year's just different'
To be sure, the path to victory for Obama in North Carolina is still far from easy.
Polling in the presidential race has been inconsistent. One poll last week showed McCain leading Obama by just one point in North Carolina; other recent polls have shown him up by double digits.
There is, however, one consistent thing. Out of more than 25 polls taken in North Carolina in recent months, not a single one has shown Obama leading.
Since the 2004 election, Democrats have out-registered Republicans by about 63,000 voters in North Carolina. That may sound like a lot -- and it is -- but the state Republican Party pointed out that Bush won the state in 2004 by more than 450,000 votes.
The trends could be more troublesome for Republicans running for state offices, where Democrats historically have fared better.
"Is it concerning? Yes," said Jack Hawke, the senior strategist for Pat McCrory, the Republican candidate for governor. "The question always remains when you have newly registered voters, especially young voters, what the turnout will be. And I don't think anybody will know that until the election."
The only way to combat Democratic registration gains, Hawke said, is for Republicans to try to energize their own base and increase turnout on the Republican side.
"In an ordinary presidential year, I think Pat would win this race with a fair margin," Hawke said. "This year's just different. I think we can win, but it's going to be more difficult because of the national trends."
McCrory also is counting on his reputation as a centrist and his history of bipartisanship as mayor of Charlotte, where the city council is controlled by Democrats. And he is trying to link his opponent, Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue, to breakdowns in Raleigh over the past eight years. Those elements of his candidacy may help him appeal to the state's growing number of Democrats and unaffiliated voters.
"These suburban, new sort of voters might identify with him more than they do with Bev Perdue, and that's something she's going to have to overcome in the next few months," said Jensen, the Democratic pollster.
Similarly, Republicans are counting on McCain's reputation as a maverick who has bucked his own party on a number of key issues, such as campaign finance reform and government spending.
The McCain campaign says that it is not taking anything for granted. The Obama campaign got an organizational head start, but McCain now has nine offices open across North Carolina (Obama has 34), and McCain is roughly even with Obama in terms of spending on TV ads in the state.
"We believe North Carolina will ultimately be a red state again," said Jacobs, of the McCain campaign. "But it's not going to come without a lot of hard work."
■ James Romoser can be reached at 919-210-6794 or at jromoser@wsjournal.com.
'An evolution of ideas'
More and more people in North Carolina are registering as unaffiliated voters. Here's what a few unaffiliated voters in Forsyth County had to say:
Jerry Wise of Clemmons is retired. He said he has been registered as a Democrat and as a Republican at various times in his life, but now finds himself unaffiliated by choice.
"It was just an evolution of ideas," he said. "I am very much a middle-of-the-road person and I think each party will kind of drift in a right or left direction. When it drifts too far I have a thought to head in the other direction."
Joseph and Antigone Peek of Winston-Salem are both unaffiliated voters who voted in the Democratic primary for Barack Obama.
"I have never voted straight party," Antigone Peek said. "I have voted Republican. I vote for the person and not necessarily the party."
Joseph Peek, her husband, agreed.
"Whether they say I am a Democrat or a Republican, I think that is limiting," he said. "I vote for the best person."
Bob Kushner of Kernersville said he thinks that the two-party system is "a bit broken."
"It seems to me that most people vote against someone in the presidential election instead of voting for someone. I wish we had 'none of the above' available."
Kushner said that as an unaffiliated voter, his phone is "ringing off the hook" with computer-generated voice messages from campaigns.
Wesley Young
reporter Wesley Young contributed to this story.
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