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Busch, Edwards, Johnson to start Chase as the prohibitive favorites
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Published: September 14, 2008
LOUDON, N.H. - NASCAR's Chase for the Championship will start this afternoon, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. is looking at the best chance he has ever had to win one of those Cup titles that his father won seven times. But can he and crew chief Tony Eury Jr. get it done?
They're certainly not the favorites over the final 10 races of the season, and usually the title chase goes pretty much the way the regular season's 26 races went. So the betting line has to be Toyota's Kyle Busch against Ford's Carl Edwards, who together won 14 of the year's first 26. Jimmie Johnson, the two-time defending champ and a four-race winner, is also a threat.
Against those three -- who will start 1-2-3 at 2 p.m. today in the Sylvania 300 -- Earnhardt and the other eight Chase drivers are fighting an uphill battle. And it seems unlikely that all three will suffer enough major setbacks the final three months to open the door.
Still, Earnhardt and Eury at least know everything that Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus are doing, so that's an edge.
But Earnhardt hasn't won a Cup race in slam-bang fashion in more than two years now, although he did win that gas-mileage race at Michigan in June. That doesn't bode well.
And teammate Jeff Gordon is still winless. He hasn't won a Cup race since October and has often been far out of contention this season.
Gordon, Jeff Burton, Kurt Busch, Johnson, Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman should be the favorites here based on history, because they've won more than the rest. But judging from last week's runs, this 300 should be Stewart against Johnson.
Stewart is also winless … and still fuming about losing the race off pit road in the final miles at Richmond on Sunday, which he said cost him the win.
So today the pressure really is on Busch, Edwards and Johnson not to get caught up in something and lose ground in the points. This is only one of the 10 races, but as Stewart knows, a bad run here can ruin a man's title hopes.
Busch hasn't been perfect this year. He was 25th here in June, but rain cut the race short. "We started so far back (qualifying 27th), and we had a hard time passing," Busch said. "Our car was probably a fourth- to 12th-place car; we probably could have run fourth. But we just couldn't get anywhere; we were 14th to 16th to 18th all day.
"Starting up front, with a decent car, we should be able to hold track position better."
While there is a nagging sense that Busch might bobble once too often in this Chase and lose it, and that Edwards might have a psychological and technological edge, it's hard to say that Busch is slumping: He won at Watkins Glen, finished second at Michigan and Bristol (remember Edwards' bump and run when it's crunch time here today) and ran seventh at California before fumbling to 15th at Richmond.
What finishing average will it take to win this title? Busch has averaged a 9.9 finish so far … Johnson averaged a sizzling 5.0 last fall to win. Edwards right now is averaging 10 finishes, and Johnson 12.4.
If the title comes down to who dominates the 1½-mile tracks (Kansas, Concord, Atlanta, Texas and Homestead), Busch could have a slight edge. Edwards won at Las Vegas and Texas; Busch won at Atlanta and Chicago and finished third at Texas and Concord.
And if it comes down to those tracks, the rest of the pack might as well give up, because no one else has shown much at all.
Can Kyle Busch avoid title-killing mistakes? He has matured remarkably.
"Some of the mistakes we've made over the years have been me putting myself in bad situations, and the wrong places at the wrong time," Busch said. "I wrecked here on lap three in my first year, and blew up at Dover, and then just struggled the rest of the year.
"Last year I finished fourth here and finished fifth at Dover … but got wrecked at Kansas on lap 63. Still we had a third-place points finish going at Homestead until we got wrecked. Sometimes stupid things happen out of nowhere. The Homestead wreck was a guy that got off the pit lane out through the grass and decided to come back through the pits, and it ended up collecting us…."
And even if he doesn't win the championship, Busch said he wouldn't be disappointed. "Winning eight races, and being as competitive and as fast as we have been, on a team in a year when I was supposed to be learning things…
"This was supposed to be a learning year," he said, "getting used to (crew chief) Steve Addington, and getting used to the Gibbs organization."
, and getting Joe Gibbs Racing acquainted with Toyota. It's just come along exceptionally fast, and very well."
And, remember, at the start of the season there was this Busch-Earnhardt feud, with Busch more than a little miffed that owner Rick Hendrick bumped him to make room for Earnhardt.
Heading into the first race of the Chase, Busch has outscored Earnhardt by 390 points over the first 26 races. Busch has 15 top-fives to Earnhardt's eight. And Busch has eight tour wins to Earnhardt's one.
Where is Earnhardt's head right now? "It's cool to be under the radar," he said. "We've had so much pressure this year. At the start of the season, it was really hard to concentrate. Then things cooled off, and everything mellowed a little bit.
"It's real easy to work for Rick. Everybody that works there knows that, and everybody that works there loves it. When you go to work for Rick, you walk in the door looking out for No. 1, but before the end of the day, you're looking out for Rick.
"I really like my position. I don't feel we're underestimated. We know we got work to do. We definitely don't have an argument we're as strong as the top three guys, but we got the tools, we've got the ability.
"The only thing you feel different is where the pressure is coming from, and what it's about, and what the particulars of the situation are. There's a lot of pressure on all of us, and it's just how good you handle it. But I wouldn't change it. I love it, I love the pressure. That means I'm in the middle of it."
And Johnson?
"Before and during the ‘06 championship battle, I didn't have any damn fun," he said. "There was no fun to be had. A victory was good, but it was short-lived. Tuesday or Wednesday morning, that pressure would set in, and it's like ‘Here we go again.'
"It was because I wanted that championship so badly, and we'd been so close and things didn't work out.
"Last year I had some fun through it. And this year I hope to expand on that and have more fun. I'm doing what I love -- racing against the best drivers in the world. I'm confident in what I can do in the car. I'm confident in my team. I need to have some fun with this….
"Right now everybody is in a good mood … and we'll just see how it goes from here."
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