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Numbers tell the story
Census data: High-school diploma no longer an advantage in poverty stats
Journal Graphic by Jeremy Boyd
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Published: September 2, 2008
By now, everyone's heard the story: Stay in school, get a high-school diploma.
It's probably truer than ever, but in Winston-Salem and other communities it may not always be enough, new estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau suggest.
The Census Bureau's American Community Survey estimates for 2007 show that among people older than 25 who are living in poverty in Winston-Salem, almost 40 percent have a high-school diploma or the equivalent. That's about equal to the number of poor who have no diploma at all.
Although the Census Bureau figures are rough estimates, they appear to confirm what academics and others have been saying about the changing economy of the Triad.
"What used to be the bare essentials yesterday is no longer the bare essential today or tomorrow," said Keith Debbage, a geographer at UNC Greensboro who researches demographic trends.
To succeed today means getting an associate degree "at a bare minimum," he said. As Winston-Salem, the Triad and other parts of the state move from traditional manufacturing to more high-tech business, he said, people graduating from high school face increasing demands.
The picture isn't all bleak for those with only a high-school diploma. Among all Winston-Salem residents over 25 who have just a high-school diploma, most -- about 84 percent -- were staying above the poverty level. Still, 96 percent of the people with a bachelor's degree or more were staying out of poverty, and 91 percent of those with some college but no bachelor's degree were above the poverty level.
The Census Bureau uses dollar thresholds that vary by family size and other factors to determine the poverty level. The level changes month by month.
For instance, someone living alone and younger than 65 -- and interviewed about income last October -- would have to make more than $10,679 a year to be considered above the poverty line. The poverty level during that same time for a four-person household including two children was $20,815. For a single parent with one child the poverty level was $14,147.
The Census Bureau's poverty estimates, released last Tuesday, also showed that women in Winston-Salem of all educational levels were more likely than men to be in poverty.
For instance, about 14 percent of men with only a high-school diploma were in poverty, but 18 percent of women at the same educational level were in poverty. Women without a high-school diploma fared even worse: estimates show almost 40 percent of them to be in poverty, compared with about 25 percent of men with the same level of education.
Kenneth Simington, the assistant superintendent for student services in the Winston-Salem/Forsyth County schools, says that part of the difference may be that women with lower educational levels tend to have jobs that require fewer technical skills, and which pay less than the jobs men in the same situation have.
Many poor women with lower educational levels face the daunting challenge of being a single parent, Debbage said. The Census Bureau estimates show that almost half of the families in Winston-Salem headed by single women were in poverty in 2007.
"They are really feeling the full brunt of urban poverty … barely keeping it together, running households," Debbage said.
The area's educational silver lining, Debbage said, is a community-college system that is "phenomenally innovative and aggressive" in trying to tackle the problems caused by the area's shifting economic base. In both Guilford and Forsyth counties, Debbage said, the community colleges have been targeting economic sectors where workers might find better employment. If anything, Debbage said, the community colleges need more money.
Public-school officials are concerned too that young people be ready for more than just high school. Simington said that his job in the public schools involves working to keep students in school, but the focus nowadays isn't just on getting a high-school diploma: Starting with the eighth grade this year, students will be in a curriculum designed to have all high-school students ready for college by the time they graduate.
About 65 ninth-grade students are enrolled this year in a new dual-enrollment program designed to carry high-school students through a five-year program culminating in a degree from Forsyth Technical Community College. The program will grow year by year as students progress through the system.
The Census Bureau numbers show that a high-school diploma is "absolutely essential," said Gary Green, the president of Forsyth Tech. But they also show that "the high-school diploma is not the automatic ticket out of poverty."
Auto mechanics have to use computer technology, Green said. Plumbers have to be familiar with global-positioning-system technology.
"Our focus here in the last six to eight years has been to prepare individuals for those more highly skilled jobs," Green said.
That goes for single mothers too, said Sherraine McLean, the director of the Shugart Women's Center at Forsyth Tech. The center provides counseling and other services, including connecting women with agencies that may meet their needs.
McLean sees many single mothers trying to get more education in the face of challenges that can run from finding child care to employment to transportation. For some, the challenges are too daunting, but McLean said that those who succeed are an inspiration to others.
"Our mission is to keep these women in school, to maybe learn a skill. We have a lot of technical jobs and a high-school diploma is not enough."
■ Wesley Young can be reached at 727-7369 or at wyoung@wsjournal.com.
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