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A Day of Decision
Major parties see N.C. as key to national strategy
Graphics by Richard Boyd II, Jeremy Boyd, AP / AP PHOTOS
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Published: November 4, 2008
CHARLOTTE - Six months ago, North Carolina became the pivotal state in the Democratic primary process, vaulting Sen. Barack Obama on a path to the presidential nomination.
That was the first major signal that 2008 would be an extraordinary election year in North Carolina politics -- a year in which conventional wisdom became unwise and unconventional.
Today, as the election season comes to an end, unexpected scenarios characterize each of the state's three biggest races: for president, governor and U.S. Senate. In all of these races, candidates who were once considered underdogs are locked in tight battles that have defied the North Carolina's traditional political trends.
"We had an influx of new voters coming into this state, and it's changing the political balance. Now what it means is that North Carolina is up for grabs by both sides," said Paul Shumaker, a Republican consultant working for several statewide candidates.
Last night, 12 hours before polls opened on Election Day, Obama returned to North Carolina for the eighth time since his crucial primary victory. This time, he hoped to use the state as a springboard to the presidency.
"North Carolina, don't believe for a second this race is over," Obama said at an outdoor rally at UNC Charlotte. "We're going to have to work the next 24 hours like our lives depend on it."
His Republican rival, Sen. John McCain, was nearby, too. As part of a whirlwind, seven-state tour, McCain stopped in Blountville in northeastern Tennessee -- a visit that seemed aimed at least as much at the western regions of North Carolina and Virginia, which share a media market with Blountville. Polls show McCain with a solid lead in Tennessee, but North Carolina and Virginia have become tossup states.
"Tossup" is a word that, until recently, was seldom used to describe North Carolina's role in the presidential race. But experts say that several factors have made Obama competitive for the state's 15 electoral votes, including:
□ Changing demographics that have swamped North Carolina's suburbs with newcomers to the state, mainly from the Northeast, the Midwest and Florida. These newcomers tend to favor Obama.
□ Obama's record-breaking fundraising totals have allowed him to advertise heavily and build a vast field organization in North Carolina and other states where previous Democratic presidential candidates couldn't afford to spend money.
□ Obama's aim to increase the size of the electorate by urging blacks and young people to register and vote early.
Before today, 2.6 million people -- or about 42 percent of the state's registered voters -- had already cast early ballots in North Carolina, and a majority of them were Democrats.
"Will McCain surge enough at the last minute to offset the early voting advantages that Barack Obama has built for himself in the state?" Shumaker said yesterday.
Another key factor could be the Libertarian candidate, Bob Barr. Barr used to be a Republican congressman from Georgia, and he is likely to pull votes from McCain in Southern states.
Polls suggest that the races for governor and the Senate are also too close to call. Taken together, the candidates in these races have fallen into an odd grouping.
Pat McCrory, the Republican running for governor, and Kay Hagan, the Democrat running for Senate, are often linked with Obama as "change" candidates or outsiders running against the status quo.
McCrory has never worked in state government, and Hagan has never worked in federal government. And they -- like Obama -- are also significantly younger than their opponents.
"I don't know whether there's enough wind behind the backs of the people that want change to bring in the three sort of nonincumbents," said Andrew Taylor, a political scientist at N.C. State University, referring to Obama, McCrory and Hagan.
Their opponents sharply dispute the change-vs.-status-quo narrative.
McCain frequently promotes his reputation as a maverick and points out his differences with President Bush.
Bev Perdue, the Democrat running for governor, says that her record as lieutenant governor shows that she has been an independent agent. She has distanced herself from outgoing Gov. Mike Easley, a Democrat.
Sen. Elizabeth Dole, the incumbent Republican, has also portrayed herself as highly independent in her campaign and has tried to paint Hagan as beholden to national Democratic leaders.
Still, voters' hunger for fresh faces has undoubtedly helped McCrory and Hagan overcome long odds.
McCrory, if he wins, would become just the third Republican governor of North Carolina in the past 100 years.
If Hagan wins, she will have overcome a candidate, in Dole, who has been seen as a formidable fundraiser with a rock-star quality on the campaign trail. After being elected to the seat formerly held by Sen. Jesse Helms, Dole was considered for a long time to be almost unbeatable.
Both the McCrory-Perdue race and the Dole-Hagan race will be heavily influenced by the presidential race in North Carolina. "Democrats with resources, with skill, and in a good year, can make North Carolina a battleground, and perhaps shouldn't just viscerally write it off," Taylor said. "Obama's shown it can be done."
■ James Romoser can be reached at 919-210-6794 or at jromoser@wsjournal.com.
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