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Auto report likely to show sales crash
Industry rammed by credit crunch, careening economy
AP Photo
An unsold 2009 Acadia sport utility vehicle in Littleton, Colo., reflects trouble in the auto industry.
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Published: November 1, 2008
NEW YORK
The auto industry is preparing to report yet another month of rapidly slowing sales -- possibly the worst in decades -- as the same toxic combination of the credit crunch and the careening economy continues to keep consumers away from dealerships.
"When your home prices are going down and your retirement savings are going down and the outlook for jobs ... is becoming more problematic, you're probably not in the mood to pull the trigger on a big-ticket purchase, even if you can get credit," said George Pipas, Ford Motor Co.'s top sales analyst.
Automakers are scheduled to report October U.S. sales on Monday. The automotive Web site Edmunds.com is projecting that new-vehicle sales fell 29 percent from a year ago, to 872,000. That's the lowest figure since January 1992, said Jessica Caldwell, an auto analyst at Edmunds.
Some analysts say it's possible that Japan's Toyota Motor Corp. will surpass General Motors Corp. as the U.S. sales leader for the first time in history.
After reeling from a 32 percent drop in September sales, Toyota started zero-percent financing on almost all of its models, and could post decent sales as a result. Meanwhile, General Motors Corp.'s financing arm, GMAC, said it was tightening its lending standards to require a credit score of at least 700, potentially shutting out some buyers.
Furthermore, many people took advantage of GM's employee-pricing offer that recently ended. The deal was credited with buoying August and September's results but likely stole sales from October, said Tom Libby, a senior director for industry analysis at J.D. Power and Associates' Power Information Network.
"For GM, this is going to be a difficult month," Libby said.
J.D. Power is predicting a seasonally adjusted annual-sales rate in October of between 11 million and 11.5 million, down from 16.1 million a year ago. The closely watched figure indicates what sales would be if they remained at their current rate all year, with adjustments for seasonal fluctuations.
Globally, Toyota and GM have been neck-and-neck in the race to be the top vehicle seller, but the closest Toyota ever came to beating GM in the United States was in May, when Toyota sold 257,404 vehicles to GM's 268,990, according to Ward's AutoInfoBank.
Toyota "would still have to make up a lot of ground considering what the landscape looks like, but they're definitely going to steal a lot of market share without a doubt," Caldwell said.
In yet another sign that Asian automakers have not been immune to the slowdown, Nissan Motor Co. said yesterday that it will offer zero-percent financing on five of its top-selling vehicles through January.
Nissan and other Asian carmakers have fared better than their U.S. counterparts, but Nissan's sales still fell 37 percent in September.
One big unknown hanging over the auto industry has been the future of the Chrysler LLC. GM is widely reported to be in talks with the Chrysler's majority owner, Cerberus Capital Management LP, about acquiring the automaker, raising the prospect that the "Detroit Three" could soon become a duo.
A GM-Chrysler combination would almost certainly lead to large layoffs and plant closures, but it remains uncertain what form the final company might take. Other automakers, including Nissan and Renault SA, are reported to be talking to Cerberus.
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