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N.C. finds itself with a crucial role in presidential primaries
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VIDEO: Sen. Barack Obama in Charlotte on Friday, May 2, 2008
Published: May 5, 2008
RALEIGH — Bill Clinton called it "critical." Hillary Clinton called it a "game changer."
They were both talking about North Carolina, the state that hardly ever matters in the presidential race.
Last summer, when some state legislators tried unsuccessfully to move up North Carolina's primary to February, no one dreamed that the state would actually have more influence this way. Its primary is Tuesday.
Even as recently as last month — when Clinton scored an important victory in Pennsylvania — North Carolina's importance appeared uncertain. At the time, Obama held a huge lead in the state, which has demographics that play to his strengths. Meanwhile, Indiana, the other state with a May 6 primary, was a virtual dead heat.
Some people wondered whether Clinton would throw all her resources to Indiana, in effect conceding North Carolina to Obama.
Quite the contrary.
Clinton — with the help of her husband, her daughter, Chelsea, and a state staff led by the Clinton campaign's top talent — has fought intensely here. Her efforts, plus a stream of negative attention toward Obama related to his controversial former pastor, have tightened the race in North Carolina considerably.
"I think we're in a very, very competitive race. It's likely going to come down to the low single digits," said Craig Schirmer, Obama's state director in North Carolina.
Averell "Ace" Smith, Schirmer's counterpart with the Clinton campaign, set the bar very differently. He said that because Clinton started with such a large deficit in the state, the chances of her winning here are "100 to 1."
Matter of perception
But the true significance of Tuesday's results will not be in the numbers themselves. Rather, it will be in how the numbers are perceived by undecided superdelegates, the autonomous politicians and party officials who will play a major role in deciding the Democratic presidential nomination.
Superdelegates are distinct from — and at this point, more important than — pledged delegates, which are allocated to the candidates proportionally based on the results of primaries and caucuses. North Carolina offers more pledged delegates than any remaining primary, but no matter how Clinton does here and in the remaining contests, Obama is almost assured of finishing the race with a small lead in pledged delegates.
On the other hand, the 800 or so superdelegates are free to vote for either candidate. It is to that group that Clinton and Obama are increasingly making their pitches, and how the superdelegates interpret Tuesday's results will matter a great deal.
"Let me put it this way: If Hillary pulls an upset in North Carolina, it will be very important," said Muriel Offerman, one of 11 superdelegates from North Carolina who have not announced support for either candidate. North Carolina has 19 superdelegates, six of whom have committed to Obama and two, including Gov. Mike Easley, who have committed to Clinton.
Offerman, who lives in Cary, is a member of the Democratic National Committee and is the treasurer of the state party. She is paying close attention to every move the candidates make — and they are paying close attention to her. She has spoken directly with both Clinton and Obama.
Many Democrats, including the party's national chairman, Howard Dean, are urging undecided superdelegates to make up their minds as soon as possible so that the party can settle on a nominee and move on to the general-election campaign against John McCain.
The waiting game
But the Clinton campaign has been quietly telling Offerman and other superdelegates that it is OK to wait — that, if they are uncertain which candidate to support, they should hold off on endorsing either one until all of the primaries and caucuses are over in June.
Clinton believes that would work to her advantage if she can continue the recent momentum she gained by winning the primaries in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Texas. Tuesday will test that momentum. Another important implication of North Carolina's primary will be the change in the cumulative popular vote that each candidate has received in all of the contests so far.
Under Democratic Party rules, the overall popular vote total is not an official yardstick for choosing a presidential nominee. But if Clinton finishes ahead in the overall popular vote, it would add weight to her case for why superdelegates should side with her.
"If the Clinton campaign's rationale is, 'Take a second look at Hillary Clinton because she's won more actual voters than Obama,' then she can't afford to pass up North Carolina," said Ferrel Guillory, an expert on Southern politics at UNC Chapel Hill. "If she were to lose North Carolina by the same kind of margin that she won Pennsylvania, she would fall back some in her quest to match or exceed Obama in actual votes cast."
Obama currently leads by a few hundred thousand votes in the overall popular vote, if Florida and Michigan (where neither candidate campaigned because those states broke party rules) are left out.
Looking to November
If Obama were to win by a large margin in North Carolina — where officials expect a possible turnout of 1.5 million people in the Democratic primary — he would add a cushion to his popular-vote lead and make it very unlikely that Clinton could catch up.
Obama aides also argue that the state is significant because, they say, it could turn into a battleground in November. Although Republican presidential candidates have easily won North Carolina in recent general elections, Obama believes that he can attract enough new voters and unaffiliated voters to make the state competitive.
His argument is plausible, given how rapidly the state's demographics are changing. North Carolina has added many new residents from the Northeast and Midwest.
Also, state politics here are heavily Democratic, leading some national Democrats to think that North Carolina could become competitive in national races.
In general, Clinton has been the one arguing to superdelegates that she does better in large swing states. She points to her success in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, among others. But now, in North Carolina, the Obama campaign is turning that argument around.
"Using their own definition, this is a big general election state, so this is a state, given their criteria, that they need to win," said David Plouffe, Obama's national campaign manager, on a conference call with reporters.
Howard Wolfson, Clinton's national communications director, responded to that argument yesterday, saying that he agrees that North Carolina could be important in November but suggested that it is not as crucial as the handful of battleground states that essentially decided the 2000 and 2004 elections.
"I think either candidate would attempt to put North Carolina into play in the fall," Wolfson said on a conference call. "It does not have the same recent electoral history of going back and forth between the two candidates as, say, a Florida or an Ohio does. But I do believe that North Carolina will be in play and competitive."
■ James Romoser can be reached at 919-833-9056 or at jromoser@wsjournal.com.
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