News
Clinton, Obama struggle to cut into the other's base of support
SOURCE: Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton's campaigns
Campaign trail: Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton crisscrossed the state in the week leading up to the May 6 primary.
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Published: May 4, 2008
WASHINGTON -- Harold Respass is a young college student. He's also black. Reams of poll data suggest that his affiliation with those two groups means that he's a virtual lock to vote for Barack Obama on Tuesday.
Apparently, someone forgot to tell Respass about his demographic destiny. He's anything but set on voting for Obama, a senator from Illinois.
"I'm undecided right now. I was a big Hillary supporter," said Respass, a junior at Winston-Salem State University. He paused, then said, "Obama is making young people care about the political process."
As the Democratic battle for North Carolina enters its final three days, the core groups of voters backing Obama and Hillary Clinton in North Carolina have mostly solidified, mirroring the same fault lines that determined the outcome of recent contests in other states.
Blacks and young college graduates form the core of Obama's support, while lower- to middle-income workers and older white voters -- women in particular -- have been mostly loyal to Clinton. But that doesn't mean that Clinton's campaign has been willing to give up on voters such as Respass.
The Clinton campaign held an event last week at WSSU as part of a statewide effort to undercut Obama's dominance among blacks and the young. Meanwhile, Obama has been going after Clinton's base with equal fervor.
With few exceptions, the candidates have had difficulty making major inroads into their opponent's bases, a reality highlighted by Repass' potential defection from Clinton to Obama. But neither candidate is giving up.
Both are continuing to woo voters whose income, skin color, gender, age or education suggest that they will probably vote for the other candidate.
"We think we have an appeal across demographic lines," said David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager. "We're fighting for support in every part of the state."
Many black voters were initially reluctant to support Obama because of concerns that white voters were not ready to elect a black president. Then he won Iowa, an overwhelmingly white state.
Since then, Obama has enjoyed extremely high levels of support amongst blacks. Polls taken in North Carolina last week showed that he had the support of 80 percent of black voters, compared with just 10 percent for Clinton, with the rest undecided.
He has not lost a state where blacks accounted for more than one-third of Democratic voters. North Carolina is such a state.
Bill Clinton was once beloved in the black community and was frequently referred to as "the first black president." But his persistent attacks on Obama have hurt his reputation and, political analysts say, undercut his wife's support in the community.
Andy Taylor, a political scientist at N.C. State University, said that the overwhelming support enjoyed by Obama appears to have persuaded Clinton's campaign to focus less on black voters and more on shoring up her base of support.
"If you look at where she and her husband have been, it shows that they are working more on white voters," he said.
Still, Clinton has not completely given up on black voters, said Geoff Garin, a Clinton strategist.
"We recognize that there is and has been enormous support for Sen. Obama among African-American voters," he said. "Sen. Clinton has a commitment to try to earn the votes."
If she can cut Obama's black support while increasing turnout of white, older and less affluent Democrats, she might be able to trim the 5- to 10-point advantage Obama holds in the latest statewide surveys.
To help do that, three prominent black supporters of Clinton went on her behalf last week to talk with WSSU students.
One of those supporters, Erika Alexander, an actress who appeared on The Cosby Show more than 20 years ago, pleaded with the crowd to ignore the historical significance of the candidates' race and gender, and focus instead on their service.
"Her whole life has been dedicated to social change," Alexander told the students.
Even on majority-white college campuses in the state, Clinton has had difficulty cutting into Obama's support among young people. The latest statewide polls show that voters under 35 favor Obama over Clinton by a 2-to-1 margin.
Still, the Clinton campaign says it has not given up on the dormitory vote. The campaign has dispatched Chelsea Clinton to several universities in the state, including a visit to Salem College on Friday.
At Appalachian State University, political-science professor Phillip Ardoin said that though Obama supporters have led early-voting drives and covered the sidewalks with chalked pro-Obama messages, enthusiasm for Clinton on campus has been practically invisible.
"When Bill Clinton spoke here, most of the students in line had Obama signs," he said.
Meanwhile, the Obama campaign has had similar difficulty courting older white women who tend to favor Clinton. But the campaign has tried.
Last week, the campaign circulated a list of 400 women in the state, mostly local and state elected officials, who were backing Obama. The list included several older white women such as Linda Blackburn, 63, the mayor of Ahoskie.
"I realize I'm probably in the minority for my age," she said. "But I truly believe he has the best chance of healing this country."
Blackburn and other older, politically active female Obama supporters have lobbied their friends and strangers of a similar demographic profile to give Obama another look. Blackburn has had a few converts, she said, but not many.
As part of Obama's targeted message to women, the campaign has also had his wife, Michelle Obama, travel the state.
Obama's campaign has also aggressively lobbied lower- and middle-income white workers in rural parts of the state, including cities such as Hickory that have been devastated by manufacturing plant shutdowns.
Support from blue-collar workers played a big role in Clinton's win in Pennsylvania. Obama has taken pains in North Carolina to speak directly to blue-collar audiences, criticizing trade deals that led to plant shutdowns.
At a rally in Hickory last week, Obama's campaign arranged for the candidate to be introduced by a laid-off textile worker, a white man. And in Winston-Salem last week, Obama told an audience of worried supporters that he could win over white working-class voters by primary day.
He pointed to his campaign for the Senate in 2004. Everyone said that he could not win over white, working-class voters in southern Illinois, he said.
"We went down there and got those votes because everybody is looking for the same thing," he said.
His efforts to do that again in North Carolina and elsewhere this year have been complicated by his statement at a closed-door fundraiser last month that some rural blue-collar voters have made religion and gun rights the focus of their politics because they were "bitter" over their financial fortunes.
The re-emergence last week of his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, as the dominant campaign story helped Clinton increase her support of white voters in the state, Taylor said.
"The polls are showing that if there is some movement here, it is in her favor," Taylor said. "I think everyone is attributing it to the Wright thing. If that is the case, then maybe it is that white voters are being alienated."
Not all, though. Dave Stowell, 68, a white, retired U.S. Marine, showed up to see Obama in Hickory.
"I guess you could say I'm kind of unfamiliar for this rally, but this fellow needs a chance," he said.
At the beginning of April, polls showed Obama with consistent double-digit leads over Clinton, in large part because he had begun to erode Clinton's hold on white voters, said Dean Debnam, the president of Public Policy Polling, who has conducted several polls on the North Carolina race.
But his lead has decreased to 5 to 10 points within the past two weeks, as white voters have turned back to Clinton, Debnam said.
"Rev. Wright is her best campaign tool. She doesn't have to say a thing; he just has to keep talking," he said.
■ Sean Mussenden can be reached at 202 662-7668 or at smussenden@mediageneral.com.
■ Bertrand M. Gutierrez can be reached at 727-7283 or at bgutierrez@wsjournal.com.
■ Journal reporters Mary Giunca and Michael Hewlett contributed to this story.
Issues in the presidential primary
Gas Prices
Clinton: Favors a suspension of the federal gasoline tax for the summer, arguing that it would bring down gas prices.
Obama: Opposes the tax suspension, arguing that it would raise oil company profits, not bring down gas prices, a position that most economists support.
Housing
Clinton: Proposes a $30 billion plan that provides a 90-day freeze on home foreclosures arising from subprime lending and a freeze on subprime lending rates.
Obama: Proposes a $20 billion plan that provides for a tax credit for struggling homeowners and penalties for mortgage fraud.
Health Care
Clinton: Make affordable coverage mandatory for everyone.
Obama: Make affordable coverage available to everyone, but the only mandate is coverage for children, not adults.
Iraq
Clinton: Voted for the war, opposed troop increases, has not committed to withdrawal timetable.
Obama: Spoke out against the war, opposed troop increase, committed to withdrawing troops within 16 months.
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The Downtown Summer Music Series will begin on Thursday. Ed Bumgardner talks to some of the organizers of the Downtown Jazz lineup, in which a form of music known as "smooth jazz" will play a more prominent role this year.
Thursday's relish stories will appear in the Entertainment section.
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Reader Comments
Posted by ( citizen ) on May 4, 2008 at 8 a.m. ( Suggest removal )
Those individuals who have forgotten all of the Clinton's lies and abuse of the system over the years will only get more of the same if Hillary is elected. She is worse than Bill and their are many instances where she was the main culprit. She should not be elected to any office.
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Posted by ( eznelson ) on May 4, 2008 at 9:16 a.m. ( Suggest removal )
Is Hillary really for the common man and woman?
1) Hillary voted AGAINST the Vitter amendment which PREVENTS the government from confiscating guns from law abiding citizens during emergencies or martial law. Interestingly Obama voted for it and for the rights of gun owners.
2) The Clintons recently revealed on their tax returns that they had amassed fortunes of 109 million dollars.
3) Hillary was instrumental in pushing FOR and getting NAFTA passed which has been a disaster for American workers. According to documents released by the National Archives, Hillary in 1993 attended at least 5 meetings that were used to win approval of NAFTA by Congress and these documents detailed her role in promoting NAFTA while she was first lady.
4) Hillary along with the Republicans voted for the Iraq War which have taken billions of our tax paying dollars out of our pockets and put them into the pockets of oil companies and defense contractors.
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Posted by ( musicman27106 ) on May 4, 2008 at 10:10 a.m. ( Suggest removal )
WINSTON-SALEM, N.C. - America's presidential candidates, big money, media and governments are deceiving our people. America is lost in hypocrisy and evil. Hold the presidential candidates up to the following litmus test and they will prove to be hypocrites and liars. They swear vows of lies on the Bible to God. The Truth is not in them.
The vast majority of people in the world, who claim to be Christians, don't adhere even to the basic fundamentals of Christianity. For example, a beginning test in the extremely difficult task of finding a true Christian is to try to draw out a person's real religious doctrine. This is done in question and answer. A person will speak from the abundance of his heart. Good starting questions are; Do you believe war can be justified? Do you believe in executing people in some cases? If either of these questions is answered yes, the person's profession of Christianity is in vain. He does not trust in or know God and Jesus. God's Commandment is "Thou shalt not kill." The person, in answering yes, has spoken against the Holy Commandment of God. He has committed the sin of blasphemy which is equal to breaking any and all of God's Commandments. The Law of God is "Do not kill." (KJV Luke 18:20), (Mark 10:19), (James 2:11) The Law of God is "Love your enemies." (Matt. 5:44), (Luke 6:27) "Thou shalt not kill." (Romans 13:9) "Do violence to no man." (Luke 3:14) The servants of hypocrisy will attempt to argue that there is a difference of meaning in the translations of the words, kill and murder. Jesus put this lie to silence when he said, "Love your enemies." (Matt. 5:44), (Luke 6:27) To hit, shoot, bomb, execute, kill, etc. are not in the definition of love. True Christianity is nonviolent. "God is Love." (1.John 4:8,16)
Online version: http://BuenaVistaMall.com/Truth.htm
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Posted by ( HeadsCarolinaTailsCA ) on May 4, 2008 at 11:47 a.m. ( Suggest removal )
Obama has feet of clay.
Hillary has wheels. She can go the distance.
Get out the vote, NC.
We need Hillary.
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Posted by ( justme819 ) on May 4, 2008 at 1:48 p.m. ( Suggest removal )
BO`s showing his hypocracy again...he voted FOR A GAS TAX HOLIDAY 3 times in 2000 when gas prices were less than $2 a gallon...so, he`s showing us again that he`s really just a typical Wash. politician!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080430/ap_on_el_pr/obama_gas_tax_fact_check
Hillary voted AGAINST it in 2000 for all the right reasons!
But because Hillary thought of it and is PROVING to be the REAL uniter BO never was in Congress, by crossing party lines and trying to bring McCain, the Pubs, and the Dems together on this...BO can only attack the plan and HOPE!
http://facts.hillaryhub.com/archive/?id=7461
And why did it take BO over 20 yrs to figure out just how extreme...and out-of-touch his Pastor/mentor really is...when it took America only a few 30 sec sound-bytes?!
Wright said nothing different last week-end...except that he called BO a politician just saying what politicians say to get elected!...
Since Wright exposed the WORST LIE OF ALL this campaign, BO had no choice but to divorce him!
But even if we take BO`s word for it, he`s shown such hypocracy and bad judgment not just here but his other associations are all a product of that same bad judgment:
Ayers, Rezko, Sinclair, Odinga, etc.
http://www.audacityofHypocrisy.com
We can`t afford a Pres. who`s shown such bad judgement...and is just another Wash. politician...here`s more Proof:
Lobbyists, Law Firms and the Obama Money Cartel
http://www.corporatecrimereporter.com/obama022108.htm
"...Part of Obama's contrived Sainthood is an undertaking that he will not take funds from lobbyists or political action committees. But, like the Clintons and just about any other American politician, he has assiduously done just that..."
An Asterisk to Obama’s Policy on Donations
http://www.caclean.org/problem/latimes_2007-04-22.php
Obama Finesses His Lobbyist Ties
http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/sen.-obama-finesses-his-lobbyist-ties-2007-04-19.html
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Posted by ( justme819 ) on May 4, 2008 at 1:55 p.m. ( Suggest removal )
Obama - The Same Old Wash. Politics!
1. BO voted for Cheney`s energy bill...Hillary voted against it!...this bill was written by energy lobbyists and has been called, "...the best energy bill corporations could buy..."
BO also took more money last month from oil company executives than any other candidate...while running an ad saying that he didn't take money from oil companies.
http://facts.hillaryhub.com/archive/?id=7318
click on blue lettering for ALL the PROOF!
2. BO supports Washington DC laws effectively banning guns.
http://weblogs.newsday.com/news/politics/blog/2008/02/barack_obama_comments_on_shoot.html
and voted for the infamous assault weapons bans, voted to limit the number of handguns a person could buy, voted against lawsuit protections for gun manufacturers, supported a national ban on concealed carry, and voted against a bill protecting homeowners from being sued by burglars they shoot in their own homes.
3. Hillary gives about 10% of her income to charity...compared to the also-rich Obama, who gives less than 1% most yrs...Hillary pays another 33% in taxes...which is 12% above the avg in her tax bracket...she even proposes taxes on herself and others in her tax bracket!
4. Hillary is against NAFTA and was while Bill was Pres!
http://www.hillaryclinton.com/news/release/view/?id=6892
BOTTOM LINE: Hillary`s for keeping jobs right here in the US!
5. When BO entered the race, his justification centered around alledged 'good judgment' on the Iraq War...but, associations with Rezko, Wright, Ayres, Odinga, etc...call into question BO`s judgment...so, if he got it so wrong in these situations, how did he get it right on the Iraq war?
Simple...he lied...BO wasn`t in the Sen and had the advantage of not being fed ALL the misleading intel to base judgment on...which misled MOST OF CONGRESS!...further, after BO got elected to the Sen, he and Hillary voted the same way on the war every time based on the same intel...except once...this includes voting 84 times for appropriations!
Then, in the Cleve debate...BO stated that he`d take action if intel showed that Al-Qaeda was building a base there...When the war started, the US had intel which showed that Al-Qaeda had bases in Iraq...the same condition Obama states he`d take action on...
Which means Obama was either lying in the debate or when he says he was against the war from the start.
So, his speech was meaningless...my 12-yr. old gave a speech against the war too...yet, no one`s claiming that he has the judgment necessary to run the most powerful country on earth...he doesn`t...and neither does BO!
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Posted by ( Northshorewoman ) on May 4, 2008 at 7:08 p.m. ( Suggest removal )
1. On NAFTA: A President cannot legislate, he or she can only do the best he or she can to move Congress to follow the vision from the White House. Congress would not approve the fair and equitable sections of NAFTA. President Clinton go the best he could get at the time. Most believed Vice President Al Gore would be the next President and that he would continue to work on it until it was right. We all know what happened there -- the guy most voters wanted to have a beer with won and he chose not to continue the work on NAFTA. The blame for where we are today, lies with President Bush.
2. Iraq: Sen. Clinton voted to give her President all of the tools he might need to deter what he claimed was an immediate threat to the United States. (She did not authorize war, read her floor statement. And, please do not tell me she did not read all of the intelligence, I've been the woman behind the woman and leaders cannot read every word and they are fully informed by their staff.)And we all know what happened there. That vote was abused. The blame for where we are today, lies with President Bush.
Sen. Clinton is the best leader for the United States, particularly at this time. I trust North Carolina will vote for the best person available to us.
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Posted by ( FellowAmerican ) on May 4, 2008 at 10:10 p.m. ( Suggest removal )
I have watched this election with great hope and despair. Hope because maybe, just maybe I was wrong about never seeing a Black president in my lifetime and despair because of America’s history with Black people. As the election progressed, there was such excitement about Obama and the polls indicated that the American people would elect a Black person to be president. The youth were registering to vote in record numbers, because of the hope and excitement that Obama was bringing to America. I was filled with a fullness that I cannot describe not because Obama may become the first Black president but because the American people finally said, “the hell with the past, we are going to elect the best candidate regardless of race”. However, after watching the last 2 months unfold (all news channels focused on Rev. Wright (lynching by association)), I have been slapped back into reality and now know that America (the country that I love) is not ready for a Black president despite the polls. Even though Clinton has fabricated stories, her and her supporters continually injected race into the election, her divisive tactics, being the least trust worthy of the last three presidential candidates (according to national polls) and many other Clinton controversies that the news media chose to overlook or keep in the public eye for a day or two. Yes, I have been forced to see the true America in which I live. The youth are the only good thing that I can truly have hope in for in the future, if they do not change into the old America. I just hope that this election does not break the spirit of the American youth (which turned into a movement because of Obama) and they will continue to be excited about the election process despite the news media. I refuse to ever allow my hopes to get that high in an election in American again. I am wide-awake now and will never dream again about a new American. Thanks America (not all American citizens) for the reality check. You have destroyed my spirit (when it comes to the presidential election) as well as many other people of hope and change. GOD Bless!
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Posted by ( VoxPublicus ) on May 4, 2008 at 10:44 p.m. ( Suggest removal )
Oh how I wish Ronald Reagan was still President....
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