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Route to Victory? N.C. may be pivotal in race, analysts predict
AP File Photos
Sen. Barack Obama (left) is heavily favored in North Carolina’s primary. Analysts say that a win here could virtually sew up the nomination for him. If Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton wins easily in Pennsylvania, as is expected, then any win in North Carolina could shift momentum, one analyst says.
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Published: March 26, 2008
RALEIGH
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's dwindling chances to be president may hinge on what happens in North Carolina.
As she prepares to make her first campaign trip to the state on Thursday, including a stop in Winston-Salem, her aides insist that North Carolina is not a "must-win" state.
But many Democrats, both nationally and in North Carolina, increasingly view Sen. Barack Obama as the nominee-to-be. For that perception to shift, it would take momentous changes in the dynamics of the race — including, perhaps, a surprise Clinton victory in North Carolina, where Obama is heavily favored.
Averell "Ace" Smith, Clinton's state director in North Carolina, said yesterday that if Clinton were to win the state in the May 6 primary, it would be a "monumental upset."
"North Carolina's incredibly important," Smith said, "but we also realize this is a real uphill fight. We realize that we start significantly behind. No question about that. But it's clearly an important state."
Obama campaigned in North Carolina for the first time last week, and he is scheduled to be in Greensboro today. There are no tickets remaining for Obama's appearance at Greensboro War Memorial Coliseum.
Clinton will make three campaign stops on Thursday: one in Raleigh, one in Fayetteville, and one in Winston-Salem, where she will hold a rally at Forsyth Technical Community College's gymnasium on Bolton Street.
Jerry Meek, the chairman of the N.C. Democratic Party, laid out Clinton's problem in the national delegate totals.
"I think it's very, very unlikely that if Obama won both the popular vote and the pledged-vote count, that the nomination would go to Clinton," said Meek, who has not endorsed either candidate. "The public outcry as a result of that would be so intense that it would not happen."
Meek is one of hundreds of so-called "superdelegates" whose votes at the Democratic national convention will ultimately decide who gets the nomination. The problem for Clinton is that, no matter what happens in the remaining state contests, Obama is virtually assured of entering the convention with a small lead in pledged delegates, which are allocated to each candidate based on the results of primaries and caucuses.
Obama's lead in pledged delegates will not be enough, on its own, to give him the nomination. But the group of superdelegates — made up of Democratic elected officials and other party leaders, intently aware of how they are perceived by the public — is unlikely to counteract Obama's pledged-delegate lead without some compelling reason.
"There would be a revolution in the Democratic Party. These superdelegates are not going to do something that makes them unpopular," said Gary Pearce, a longtime Democratic consultant in Raleigh.
Pearce added that he believes that Obama is virtually assured of the nomination.
The Clinton campaign has made several arguments for why the superdelegates should choose her over Obama. The campaign points to her success in the primaries of large swing states, such as Ohio, and it argues that Clinton would be a stronger candidate against the Republican candidate, Sen. John McCain.
Those arguments haven't gotten much traction, and some observers suggested that she will need a strong show of momentum in the remaining states if she wants any hope of swaying enough superdelegates to her side.
Clinton is favored in Pennsylvania, which will hold its primary on April 22. After that, North Carolina is the largest remaining state.
"Win comfortably in Pennsylvania. Build on that and get a win of any kind in North Carolina. And then you change the dynamics of the race," said John Dinan, a political scientist at Wake Forest University, describing a plausible path to the nomination for Clinton.
A poll released yesterday by a Democratic polling firm in North Carolina showed Obama leading Clinton by 21 points in the state. A week ago, another poll by the firm, Public Policy Polling, showed Obama with a lead of just 1 point.
Tom Jensen, an analyst with Public Policy Polling, attributed Obama's large jump in the poll to a change in the sample of voters that was polled and to the media attention he received last week from his visit to the state.
If Obama gets a resounding win in North Carolina, it could help clinch the nomination for him, said Pearce, the Democratic consultant.
"Unless either she or he wins a state they should not win, I think this thing is probably over after North Carolina," Pearce said.
Even former president Bill Clinton, campaigning for his wife on Friday, alluded to North Carolina's importance, saying, "This whole thing could come down to what you all decide to do in North Carolina."
Whichever candidate wins here, it will be one of the primaries that defines the state of the race, said Dinan, the political scientist at Wake Forest.
"North Carolina is not just playing a role, but it's possible to make the argument that North Carolina could be influential — you could say even potentially determinative," Dinan said. "It's not exaggerating to say that North Carolina's role could be that strong this year, either in squelching a mini momentum on the part of the Clinton campaign and helping Obama, or helping Clinton to change the dynamics.
■ James Romoser can be reached at 919-210-6794 or at jromoser@wsjournal.com.
Stumping in N.C.
Local officials will meet today to plan for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's Thursday appearance in Winston-Salem.
Clinton is scheduled to speak at 5:30 p.m. at a rally titled "Solutions for America" at Forsyth Technical Community College's gym at 1300 Bolton St.
The rally is open to the public and tickets are not required, according to the Clinton campaign. A spokesman for the college told WGHP/FOX8 that 700 to 750 people are expected.
City Manager Lee Garrity said last night that the city will work with Clinton's security team to make arrangements, including whether any street closures will be needed. Clinton's route will probably not be made public, he said.
Garrity said he does not expect roads to be closed for long.
Her rival for the Democratic presidential nomination, Sen. Barack Obama, has scheduled a campaign stop in Greensboro today.
He has scheduled a town-hall meeting at 1 p.m. at the War Memorial Auditorium on High Point Road.
The session is free and open to the public, but tickets are required for admission and all have been distributed.
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