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Obama fans envision N.C. in his column
In general elections, state usually goes to Republican side
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Published: June 8, 2008
RALEIGH
The road to the Democratic presidential nomination went straight through North Carolina.
But can the same be said about the road to the White House?
Some of Barack Obama's supporters think that could be the case this year. In a sign that he intends to compete for North Carolina's 15 electoral votes, Obama is scheduled to campaign in Raleigh on Monday -- his first return to North Carolina since his thumping of Hillary Clinton in the state's May 6 primary. Obama supporters hope that he will return many more times between now and November. They foresee North Carolina becoming a battleground state in the general election for the first time since 1992.
That year, then-Gov. Bill Clinton came close to winning the state over President George H.W. Bush. No Democratic presidential candidate has won North Carolina since Jimmy Carter in 1976. And in recent national elections, the state has turned solidly red, with George W. Bush winning handily here twice. But Obama has shown signs that he could put traditionally red states in play, and he has promised to try to do so.
"I think there's an extremely good chance that Obama keeps it within 5 points," said Tom Jensen, a Democratic pollster in North Carolina.
Public Policy Polling, the firm that Jensen works for, found in its most recent tracking poll last week that Obama trails John McCain in North Carolina by just three points, although it is still very early for general-election polls.
Jensen said that a crucial factor for Obama will be how many Hillary Clinton supporters he can attract. The same poll showed just 58 percent of Clinton supporters saying that they would vote for Obama against McCain.
Aside from uniting the Democratic party in a state that tends to vote Republican in national elections, Obama faces some other big obstacles.
McCain is known primarily for two things: his war service and his independent streak. The first quality will help him among North Carolina's large military population, while the second quality will help neutralize the generally low approval ratings for President Bush and Republicans.
"I think it's a Democratic pipe dream" that Obama could win in North Carolina, said Marc Rotterman, a veteran Republican strategist in the state. "They're certainly not going to win with Barack Obama -- his values and beliefs are out of touch with the average North Carolinian."
Indeed, Obama has been ranked as one of the most liberal members of the U.S. Senate, and throughout the primary season, he had problems connecting with rural and culturally conservative areas of the country. Unlike Obama, the last two Democratic presidential candidates who put North Carolina in play -- Carter and Clinton -- were Southern governors with reputations as moderates.
Obama supporters counter with other demographic trends that seem to work in his favor.
He has huge support among black voters, who make up more than 20 percent of registered voters in North Carolina.
As does McCain, he has cross-over appeal, having attracted many independents and Republicans to vote for him in his primary race against Clinton.
And Obama starts the general-election campaign with a large organizational advantage in North Carolina because of the hotly contested primary against Clinton. For the primary, he opened more than 30 offices across the state and accumulated long lists of donors and volunteers. He will also try to tap into Clinton's broad network here.
"These candidates established large machines with tremendous connections throughout the state, and he can presumably go back to that again and he doesn't have to reinvent the wheel," said Andrew Taylor, a political scientist at N.C. State University. "It can't do anything but help to have that kind of infrastructure in place."
McCain, by contrast, has no similar infrastructure in the state, because he had already wrapped up the Republican nomination by the time of North Carolina's primary.
Another potential kink for McCain could be the Libertarian candidacy of Bob Barr, a former congressman from Georgia who is known as a conservative. Some analysts believe that Barr has the potential to be a spoiler, taking votes from McCain in Southern states.
The presidential election isn't really a national vote. It's a collection of state elections, and electoral votes aren't apportioned the same way as delegates were in the Democratic primary. In every state but Maine and Nebraska, it's winner-take-all. Obama won't get credit for a close second. So his campaign will have to decide whether resources used here could be better deployed elsewhere, in states that Democrats have to win to take back the White House.
Even if Obama does keep the race close in North Carolina, it is unlikely that the state will play the singularly decisive role that Florida played in 2000 or that Ohio played in 2004.
"If North Carolina is seriously in play come a week or so before the election, then I think John McCain has more problems than worrying about just North Carolina," Taylor said.
■ James Romoser can be reached at 919-210-6794 or at jromoser@wsjournal.com.
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