The fifth decline in the Triad’s jobless rate over the past six months is giving economists and employment officials more confidence that the economy is trending in the right direction.
However, they cautioned yesterday that the drop to 10.2 percent in August — from 10.4 percent in July and a record high of 12.3 percent in February— still requires a “less bad is good” mentality to derive any satisfaction.
Since the recession began in December 2007, North Carolina has shed 259,500 jobs and its jobless rate has soared from 4.7 percent to 9.7 percent in August 2010, according to South by North Strategies Ltd., a research company in Chapel Hill specializing in economic and social policy.
“Although we have not recovered to where we were two years ago, in terms of total labor force numbers, I think we can take some comfort in these numbers,” said Archie Hicks, the manager of the Winston-Salem office of the N.C. Employment Security Commission.
“Sometimes the renewed hiring lags behind the renewed efforts of people seeking work, which causes the rates to increase. We are not out of the woods but are not in as deep as we have been.”
The jobless rates for the Winston-Salem metropolitan statistical area and Forsyth County each dropped by 0.2 percentage points to 9.3 percent and 9.4 percent, respectively.
The rates decreased in 13 of the 14 counties in the Triad and Northwest North Carolina, with Alleghany County having the largest drop of 0.5 percentage points to 9.6 percent. Rockingham County’s rate was unchanged at 11.4 percent.
There was a net gain of 9,100 jobs in the Winston-Salem and Greensboro-High Point MSAs that are comprised of Davie, Forsyth, Guilford, Randolph, Rockingham, Stokes and Yadkin counties.
Of those jobs, 6,800 are in government, likely public-school teachers being rehired for the current school year. There also was a combined net gain of 1,200 in the trade, transportation and utilities sectors; 900 in professional and business services; and 300 in manufacturing.
Another factor in the Triad’s rate decline was a 4,886 decrease in the labor force to 780,488, which analysts say is an indication that more people exited the job market.
“We are continuing to see a combination of lower employment and lower unemployment,” said Todd Cherry, the director of the Center for Economic Research and Policy Analysis at Appalachian State University.
“That suggests that people are working part time when they are unable to secure full-time work, while others are simply becoming discouraged in their search for full-time employment and are leaving the work force.”
Although the jobless rate dropped in 82 counties statewide, “current economic conditions continue to be a challenge for many communities across North Carolina as the unemployment rate remains at 10 percent or over in half of the counties,” said Lynn Holmes, the chairwoman of the commission.
The August jobs report “illustrates just how weak local economies really are,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North.
“Private-sector employers are not creating positions in any meaningful way, so many North Carolinians who are ready, willing and able to work are finding themselves blocked out of the labor market,” Quinterno said. “The basic pattern has not changed much since early 2009.”
rcraver@wsjournal.com
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