Triad jobs scene rosier

Jobless rate in region falls from 12.3% to 11.3%

By: JournalNow Staff | JOURNAL REPORTER
Published: April 24, 2010

Finally, some good economic news has surfaced in the Triad.

The regional unemployment rate dropped a full percentage point last month to 11.3 percent, the N.C. Employment Security Commission reported yesterday.

Analysts and local bank officials said that most businesses remain cautious about hiring and borrowing money for expansion projects.

Still, the rate drop represents the largest one-month decline for the Triad in 14 years, the commission said. In February 1996, the rate fell 1.3 percentage points, to 3.8 percent.

By comparison, the February rate of 12.3 percent had represented the highest unemployment since at least 1976.

Unlike months when the Triad rate drops because potential job-hunters stop looking for work -- and thus are not counted as unemployed -- the March decline appears based more on hiring.

The commission reported that there were 13,090 more Triad residents considered as employed during March, or 695,383. There also were 7,118 fewer people considered as unemployed -- 88,962.

The sharp decline in March was unusual in that the unemployment rate has been at or near a record-high level for more than a year.

But the county and regional rates are not seasonally adjusted, which means that there is some fluctuation because of seasonal effects, such as the typically slow hiring months of January and February, said Larry Parker, a spokesman for the commission.

"We prefer to look at a trend over several months, especially when there are a lot of decreases in much of the state," Parker said.

The jobless rate fell by a full percentage point to 10.1 percent in the Winston-Salem metropolitan statistical area. The MSA consists of Davie, Forsyth, Stokes and Yadkin counties.

In February, Forsyth's rate dropped to 9.8 percent from 10.6 percent. During March, the jobless rate fell in every North Carolina county. That included six counties with a 2 percentage-point or lower decrease, including Ashe; and 51 counties with a 1 percent to 1.9 percentage-point decline, including nine in the Triad and Northwest North Carolina.

"News that all North Carolina counties experienced a decrease in the local unemployment rate is certainly welcome," said Lynn Holmes, the chairwoman of the commission. "But we still have challenges ahead of us."

A month's decline, however large, does not make for a trend or a sigh of relief, said John Quinterno, a principal at South by North Strategies Ltd., a Chapel Hill research company focused on economic and social policy.

"Labor-market conditions have stabilized since last summer, and some job creation has occurred," Quinterno said. "But jobs are not being generated at levels needed to cut down joblessness. Any way you look at it, the trend points to a very weak labor market and the formation of a jobless recovery."

The Triad had a net gain of 3,500 jobs during March, including at least 1,200 in leisure and hospitality and 600 in professional and business services.

Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC, said that part of the job-market improvement is based on more than seasonal changes.

"Consumer spending and business investment have both improved, and housing has stabilized," Vitner said. "This has given businesses confidence to boost capital spending and employment."

However, several banks that issued first-quarter earnings reports this week were cautious about the economy, particularly when it comes to weak loan demand from individuals and companies.

rcraver@wsjournal.com

727-7376

During March, the jobless rate fell in all 14 counties in the Triad and Northwest North Carolina. The rate represents the percentage of unemployed in the work force.