Jobless rate up to record 12.3%

The jobless rate in the Triad inched up to a record high of 12.3 percent in February, the N.C. Employment Security Commission reported yesterday.

The rate was 12.2 percent in January.

With the slight increase, the February rate becomes the latest peak of unemployment since at least 1976. The commission said that unemployment rates before 1976 were not seasonally adjusted, so they are not comparable to data published since then.

The jobless rate for the Winston-Salem metropolitan statistical area rose to 11.1 percent from 11 percent during February. The area is comprised of Davie, Forsyth, Stokes and Yadkin counties.

Forsyth's rate was unchanged at 10.6 percent.

Overall, 11 of the 14 counties in the Triad and Northwest North Carolina experienced an increase; the rates in Alamance and Guilford counties also were unchanged.

Ashe and Alleghany counties had the biggest increases. Ashe's rate rose from 15 percent to 16.2 percent in February, while the rate in Alleghany went from 14.3 percent to 15.3 percent. The rate in Stokes County rose from 12.2 percent to 12.9 percent.

The increase in those counties does not represent "universally bad news," said Todd Cherry, an economics professor at Appalachian State University.

"In the midst of a recovery, higher unemployment is often an indicator that people are gaining confidence about the prospects of finding a job," Cherry said. "The numbers suggest this is the case in some counties across the state and in Northwest North Carolina."

However, some economists have said that if the underemployed -- those working in jobs below their skill level for the sake of earning a paycheck, the stay-at-home parent, the retiree and the discouraged -- are factored into the jobless rate, it could be as much as 2.5 percentage points higher.

"The February data demonstrate the uncertain nature of the current economic conditions," said Lynn Holmes, the chairwoman of the commission. "Some areas experienced industry-employment gains, but overall we continue to face challenges on the road to recovery."

The Winston-Salem MSA lost 1,100 jobs during February, including 400 in professional and business services; 300 in trade, transportation and utilities; and 200 in leisure and hospitality. It had a net gain of 100 jobs in education and health services.

The increase in the jobless rate can be attributed to three things, economists say:

• More people re-entered the work force in January, thus being counted again as unemployed.

• There's the cumulative effect of recent major job cuts piling up as former employees at Dell Inc., Douglas Battery Manufacturing Co., GMAC Insurance, Hanesbrands Inc., Jostens Inc. and R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co. are filing for unemployment benefits as their severance packages run out.

• There is also the annual recalculation of how the commission measures employment data. The benchmarking is required to meet federal guidelines. The recalculation can lead to an upward or downward revision of the monthly jobless rates for the previous year.

"Some analysts may say that the economy has turned a corner based on some recent positive macroeconomic numbers, but local job markets are showing little evidence of improvement," said John Quinterno, a principal at South by North Strategies Ltd., a research company focused on economic and social policy.

"On the contrary, the report suggests that more difficulties are in store for 2010, especially as federal recovery spending fades away."

rcraver@wsjournal.com


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Jobless rates still rising

The unemployment rate rose in 11 of the 14 counties in the Triad and Northwest North Carolina during February.

County February 2009 January 2010* February 2010

Alamance 11.9 percent 13.2 percent 13.2 percent

Alleghany 15.3 percent 14.3 percent 15.3 percent

Ashe 14.7 percent 15 percent 16.2 percent

Davidson 13.4 percent 14.1 percent 14.3 percent

Davie 11.2 percent 12.3 percent 12.8 percent

Forsyth 10 percent 10.6 percent 10.6 percent

Guilford 11 percent 11.8 percent 11.8 percent

Randolph 12.2 percent 12.7 percent 12.9 percent

Rockingham 14.1 percent 14.6 percent 15.2 percent

Stokes 11.4 percent 12.2 percent 12.9 percent

Surry 13.2 percent 13.2 percent 13.6 percent

Watauga 8.6 percent 9.1 percent 9.4 percent

Wilkes 13.2 percent 14.1 percent 14.6 percent

Yadkin 11.5 percent 11.4 percent 11.9 percent

* - Some January rates were revised

Source: N.C. Employment Security Commission