Poll: Winston-Salem jobs outlook gloomy

By: Richard Craver | JOURNAL REPORTER
Published: December 08, 2009

Hunting for work is expected to be a chilly pursuit in the first quarter, according to the latest survey of Winston-Salem area employers by Manpower Inc.

The survey, timed for release today, found a status-quo job forecast, with 84 percent of employers in the Winston-Salem metropolitan statistical area planning to maintain their staff levels. The MSA consists of Davie, Forsyth, Stokes and Yadkin counties.

Just 7 percent of employers expect to hire, down from 11 percent in the fourth quarter and 22 percent in the third quarter.

It is the bleakest local job-market projection since the third quarter of 2008, when 3 percent of employers said they were hiring. It also is the second lowest hiring projection since at least the fourth quarter of 1996, according to the Manpower surveys.

The Triad had a jobless rate of 11.1 percent in October. The rate does not reflect the first 400 job cuts at the Dell Inc. assembly plant in Winston-Salem.

Manpower does not disclose how many employers it surveys in individual markets. Though Manpower does not conduct a formal follow-up on its quarterly forecasts, it does touch base with employers about current hiring in preparation for the next survey.

Matt Stadler, the manager of Manpower's office in Winston-Salem, said that one piece of good news about the forecast is that just 4 percent of local employers plan to cut jobs in the first quarter. That's down from 11 percent in the fourth quarter and 7 percent in the third quarter.

Listed as promising industry sectors for local job-seekers were construction, wholesale and retail trade, financial activities, professional and business services, education and health services and government.

The clients at The Clarks Group appear more optimistic about their hiring plans for 2010, said Piers Clarkson, the director of executive recruiting for the company.

"Based on this direct feedback, our projections are that each business quarter next year will improve as companies grow both in confidence and in revenue," Clarkson said.

The sector considered most likely to cut jobs is transportation and utilities.

The local hiring and layoff projections are the lowest among six metros in the state.

For example, 14 percent of employers in the Greensboro-High Point metro area plan to add staff and 9 percent plan to cut jobs.

The Manpower data is consistent with the prospects of a sluggish, potentially "jobless" recovery, said John Quinterno, a principal at South by North Strategies Ltd., a research company focused on economic and social policy

"The data are encouraging in that the vast majority of local employers claim that they intend to hold their payrolls steady, and some more intend to add positions," Quinterno said. "That may stabilize local conditions and offset some of the losses.

"However, it likely will be insufficient to offset many of the losses that have occurred since the recession's start or put much of a dent in the unemployment rate."

rcraver@wsjournal.com

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