The Triad job market essentially treaded water during 2011.
The N.C. Commerce Department reported Wednesday that December's unemployment rate for the Triad was 9.8 percent — barely down from where it began the year at 10 percent.
Forsyth County's rate was unchanged over the year at 9.1 percent, while the Winston-Salem metropolitan statistical area was 0.2 percentage point lower at 9.1 percent.
Early holiday hiring by Triad retailers was the primary contributor to the lower jobless rate in November. Because of the seasonal nature of the hiring, economists caution the jobless rate probably will rise in January.
There's some solace from the Winston-Salem MSA having a net gain of 4,300 jobs over the past year — the third-highest growth rate of the state's 14 MSAs. The Greensboro-High Point MSA has had a net gain of 8,300 jobs — the second-highest rate.
But with 12 of the 14 counties in the Triad and Northwest N.C. experiencing a rate increase during December, some analysts find it hard to be optimistic about employers expanding their workforces in the short term.
"December was the weak end to a weak year for most of North Carolina's local labor markets," said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies Ltd., a Chapel Hill research firm specializing in economic and social policy.
"Statewide job growth has been anemic at best, and as a result, nearly 500,000 North Carolinians are jobless and actively seeking work."
The Winston-Salem MSA, which consists of Davie, Forsyth, Stokes and Yadkin counties, had a loss of 1,130 jobs from November to December, including 600 jobs in the trade, transportation and utilities sector and 300 in manufacturing.
Bobbi Wessling, manager of the Winston-Salem Employment Security Commission office, said part of the reason that the local jobless rates increased was more people entering the job market during November and December.
"There were people trying to make some holiday pay to help pay their holiday shopping bills," Wessling said. "Also, some employers tend to trim their payrolls in December to get ready for the next fiscal year. We're not expecting any major increase in job postings, at least in the short term."
Brent Lane, director of the UNC Center for Competitive Economies at UNC Chapel Hill's Kenan-Flagler Business School, said he views the U.S. and N.C. economies as still being vulnerable to economic shakes from Europe and China.
"It's like we are trying to ride a bicycle really slowly, and the slower we get, the easier it is for us to tip over," Lane said.
"We all want to believe that good things can happen in the economy. But unless we can regain more manufacturing jobs, and the ancillary support jobs, we're going to have to make do with what we have rather than waiting for a recovery that may not happen."
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